It took 10 years of supporting the expansion of the Panama Canal port inadequate or difficult to pla
- Autor:Tovi Wong
- Fuente:Shipping city
- Fecha de Publicación:2016-06-30
"The world's bulk shipping no fixed routes, the most direct impact on the expansion of the Panama Canal cargo transport is the Capesize dry bulk ships, even larger Aframax tanker Suez and other dry bulk, liquid bulk cargo ship passed. this means that completely open up the global container shipping market. "June 29, Associate Professor, School of transportation, Shanghai Maritime University, Karen Chen on 21st century Business Herald reporter said, after, because of restrictions on ship types, the global container shipping routes to the east-west split the three main routes, the route after the Panama Canal opened, the ability to quickly upgrade navigation, global shipping patterns may be completely rewritten.
China is the largest commercial ship on Panama Canal users. A shipping broker researcher said that after its navigable only by larger capacity vessels, and shorten the voyage from China to the eastern United States to reduce freight rates.
But the Panama Canal and supporting other ports are limited and can not play a real short-term economic effects of around 12,000 TEU ship inside. Karen Chen believes that "in the US East Coast, the depth of each pier is not enough to accommodate such a large ship, in addition, because of the different level of trade of the regional market, ship loading rate varies, it can really play to the economic value of the ship, building more global Great route has yet to be verified. "
Processed decade expansion
Located in Central America, Panama Canal, across the Isthmus of Panama, connecting the Pacific and Atlantic, in 1920 after an international navigable waterways.
At that time navigable, he has rewritten the international shipping market structure. Karen Chen explained that after the Panama Canal navigation, you need to pass a large cargo ship Cape Horn in South America, the Panama Canal diversion, can shorten the range of about 15,000 km; by the side of the coast of North America to the other side of the harbor, but also savings range of 6,500 km. The vessels between Europe and East Asia or Australia, but also can make use of the Panama Canal to reduce the range of about 3700 km.
Container shipping, the "Earlier, the ship through the canal generally require 8-10 hours, and only through 3000-5000TEU TEU container ship." Karen Chen said that in this situation, more than 5000TEU container ship was unable to free access to the Panama Canal , the global shipping market, this type of large container ships were cut off.
Specifically, the pattern is divided by container ship, the world is divided into things trunk line between Asia and Europe, the Pacific and the Atlantic cable lines.
Among them, the Asia-Europe line brings together the world's largest ship, the route the ship about 70% of the market, more than 10,000 TEU.
Pacific routes traveling mainly 4000-7000TEU ship, ship the last two years, the Pacific Ocean to the West Coast route, more than 7500TEU the ship has reached about 40%.
On the Atlantic route, the ship over 5000TEU accounted for about 30%, 4000-5000TEU the ship mainstream ship, accounting for more than half of the shipping market.
That is, after the Panama Canal navigable condition due to weaker, smaller ship through the global routes, and more than 10,000 TEU ship navigable route to be "split."
According to information released by the expansion of the Panama Canal after the maximum allowable length of 366 meters by 48.8 meters wide, 15 meters large ship's draft to the nominal amount of up to 1.2 million TEU containers or so, if the cover over the container to take "castle type stack "arrangement, packing maximum amount exceeded 130 million TEU.
"The biggest transport shipments will grow from the previous 65,000 to 180,000 tons." Karen Chen said, which means million boxes container ships will be able to integrate into the global route.
China will benefit
At present, China is the largest commercial marine customers Panama Canal, but being limited navigation capabilities, the development of maritime trade through the Panama Canal is not fast. Data provided by Karen Chen, after China's export trade through the Panama Canal in the proportion of China's total seaborne trade of about 3%, exports accounted for less than 2% of seaborne trade.
Panama Canal dependence of countries, mainly in the periphery, such as Ecuador, Peru and Chile, the data show, the three trade through the Panama Canal imports reached 30-45%, the export volume reached 15% -25%.
After the expansion, this pattern may be broken.
Among them, the biggest breakthrough in Asia - US East Coast (the US East Coast route) all-water routes. Karen Chen said, after generally shipped from China to America East Coast trade products, mostly transported by sea to the west coast of the Americas, and then transported by road way to the east coast of the Americas.
"In addition, there is a way, from Asia via the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean, and finally shipped to the United States across the Atlantic east coast," said researcher said, but the lines of miles long, carrying containers smaller proportion. From the transport costs and is not worth it, and water transport is currently the world's most expensive general cargo transport. If the capacity of the Panama Canal navigable condition to make a stronger ship through, including China, Asia, the eastern United States to send the goods can be transported directly by water to the east coast of the United States, if you upgrade from the previous 5000TEU ship through the Panama Canal to design 12000 TEU, cargo or transport costs can be reduced by about half.
Supporting conditions is still not fully match
But such a scenario in the short term is still limited. Karen Chen explained that after the expansion of the Panama Canal, a million boxes or larger ship deeper draft, it normally takes about 15 m and above, and most of the United States east coast ports of the draft has not yet reached such a condition, port handling facilities of less than larger container ships operational requirements. In recent years, although the US East Coast ports also invested heavily excavated channel to meet the new ship after the Panama Canal expansion brings, but still mainly accommodate 6000-8000TEU former Panamanian container ship. In addition, the US East Coast via the Panama Canal to reach the required through Bayonne Bridge, although the bridge to enhance implementation of the scheme, more than million cases grade container ship navigation is still a huge challenge.
Thus, after the opening of the Panama Canal, the ship actually will 8000TEU ship navigation services, is still not really used to a larger ship shipping market, said broker also pointed out, that is to say, after the Panama Canal expansion, upgrading of the role of ship navigation ship not great. The market is expected to reach the million boxes above the level of the container vessel traffic situation still requires the eastern United States and other regional port conditions are met before they can play.
Moreover, in the shipping industry is still relatively current downturn, reprinted goods will also determine the extent of the global shipping patterns change.
Researchers said that the operating costs million boxes higher than the cost level of the ship's other ship, therefore, only when the reprint cargo reaches a certain percentage, can really play its economic value, but in the current shipping market, shipping industry downturn trend has not changed, and the situation of excess capacity and no improvement is expected in the short term, global shipping patterns is not yet navigable Panama Canal expansion and rewritten.
In addition to the shipping industry, shipbuilding industry is likely to "enjoy" the good of the other areas of the Panama Canal expansion, more than 5000TEU ship demand may increase.
"But still more difficult to achieve." Karen Chen said that at present, the global container ship, the ship age of new vessels of less than 10 years accounted for more than 60%, less than 15 years of age of the ship container ship proportion is as high as about 85% "Usually a boat may be around 20 years to take into account the abandon ship recycling, the update cycle of global shipbuilding industry is yet to come."
Leaving the market worried that the current shipbuilding industry is still in the stage of overcapacity. Karen Chen also admitted that after 2008, the global financial crisis, the global shipbuilding industry began to slump, this time, many domestic consortium and the banking system have poured into shipbuilding "buy the dips."
"They think the ship is well fixed assets, and has a very high investment value," said Karen Chen, after this wave of hot money to enter, after the trough of the domestic shipbuilding industry is pushed, there is a big bubble, many shipbuilding Although the short-term business orders rose, but the ship did not change the demand side, finally, since 2015, some domestic shipbuilding companies began to go bankrupt.
"At present, the shipbuilding industry" bubble "is not completely shattered, follow-up, there may be a number of shipbuilding companies were whipsaw out.
China is the largest commercial ship on Panama Canal users. A shipping broker researcher said that after its navigable only by larger capacity vessels, and shorten the voyage from China to the eastern United States to reduce freight rates.
But the Panama Canal and supporting other ports are limited and can not play a real short-term economic effects of around 12,000 TEU ship inside. Karen Chen believes that "in the US East Coast, the depth of each pier is not enough to accommodate such a large ship, in addition, because of the different level of trade of the regional market, ship loading rate varies, it can really play to the economic value of the ship, building more global Great route has yet to be verified. "
Processed decade expansion
Located in Central America, Panama Canal, across the Isthmus of Panama, connecting the Pacific and Atlantic, in 1920 after an international navigable waterways.
At that time navigable, he has rewritten the international shipping market structure. Karen Chen explained that after the Panama Canal navigation, you need to pass a large cargo ship Cape Horn in South America, the Panama Canal diversion, can shorten the range of about 15,000 km; by the side of the coast of North America to the other side of the harbor, but also savings range of 6,500 km. The vessels between Europe and East Asia or Australia, but also can make use of the Panama Canal to reduce the range of about 3700 km.
Container shipping, the "Earlier, the ship through the canal generally require 8-10 hours, and only through 3000-5000TEU TEU container ship." Karen Chen said that in this situation, more than 5000TEU container ship was unable to free access to the Panama Canal , the global shipping market, this type of large container ships were cut off.
Specifically, the pattern is divided by container ship, the world is divided into things trunk line between Asia and Europe, the Pacific and the Atlantic cable lines.
Among them, the Asia-Europe line brings together the world's largest ship, the route the ship about 70% of the market, more than 10,000 TEU.
Pacific routes traveling mainly 4000-7000TEU ship, ship the last two years, the Pacific Ocean to the West Coast route, more than 7500TEU the ship has reached about 40%.
On the Atlantic route, the ship over 5000TEU accounted for about 30%, 4000-5000TEU the ship mainstream ship, accounting for more than half of the shipping market.
That is, after the Panama Canal navigable condition due to weaker, smaller ship through the global routes, and more than 10,000 TEU ship navigable route to be "split."
According to information released by the expansion of the Panama Canal after the maximum allowable length of 366 meters by 48.8 meters wide, 15 meters large ship's draft to the nominal amount of up to 1.2 million TEU containers or so, if the cover over the container to take "castle type stack "arrangement, packing maximum amount exceeded 130 million TEU.
"The biggest transport shipments will grow from the previous 65,000 to 180,000 tons." Karen Chen said, which means million boxes container ships will be able to integrate into the global route.
China will benefit
At present, China is the largest commercial marine customers Panama Canal, but being limited navigation capabilities, the development of maritime trade through the Panama Canal is not fast. Data provided by Karen Chen, after China's export trade through the Panama Canal in the proportion of China's total seaborne trade of about 3%, exports accounted for less than 2% of seaborne trade.
Panama Canal dependence of countries, mainly in the periphery, such as Ecuador, Peru and Chile, the data show, the three trade through the Panama Canal imports reached 30-45%, the export volume reached 15% -25%.
After the expansion, this pattern may be broken.
Among them, the biggest breakthrough in Asia - US East Coast (the US East Coast route) all-water routes. Karen Chen said, after generally shipped from China to America East Coast trade products, mostly transported by sea to the west coast of the Americas, and then transported by road way to the east coast of the Americas.
"In addition, there is a way, from Asia via the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean, and finally shipped to the United States across the Atlantic east coast," said researcher said, but the lines of miles long, carrying containers smaller proportion. From the transport costs and is not worth it, and water transport is currently the world's most expensive general cargo transport. If the capacity of the Panama Canal navigable condition to make a stronger ship through, including China, Asia, the eastern United States to send the goods can be transported directly by water to the east coast of the United States, if you upgrade from the previous 5000TEU ship through the Panama Canal to design 12000 TEU, cargo or transport costs can be reduced by about half.
Supporting conditions is still not fully match
But such a scenario in the short term is still limited. Karen Chen explained that after the expansion of the Panama Canal, a million boxes or larger ship deeper draft, it normally takes about 15 m and above, and most of the United States east coast ports of the draft has not yet reached such a condition, port handling facilities of less than larger container ships operational requirements. In recent years, although the US East Coast ports also invested heavily excavated channel to meet the new ship after the Panama Canal expansion brings, but still mainly accommodate 6000-8000TEU former Panamanian container ship. In addition, the US East Coast via the Panama Canal to reach the required through Bayonne Bridge, although the bridge to enhance implementation of the scheme, more than million cases grade container ship navigation is still a huge challenge.
Thus, after the opening of the Panama Canal, the ship actually will 8000TEU ship navigation services, is still not really used to a larger ship shipping market, said broker also pointed out, that is to say, after the Panama Canal expansion, upgrading of the role of ship navigation ship not great. The market is expected to reach the million boxes above the level of the container vessel traffic situation still requires the eastern United States and other regional port conditions are met before they can play.
Moreover, in the shipping industry is still relatively current downturn, reprinted goods will also determine the extent of the global shipping patterns change.
Researchers said that the operating costs million boxes higher than the cost level of the ship's other ship, therefore, only when the reprint cargo reaches a certain percentage, can really play its economic value, but in the current shipping market, shipping industry downturn trend has not changed, and the situation of excess capacity and no improvement is expected in the short term, global shipping patterns is not yet navigable Panama Canal expansion and rewritten.
In addition to the shipping industry, shipbuilding industry is likely to "enjoy" the good of the other areas of the Panama Canal expansion, more than 5000TEU ship demand may increase.
"But still more difficult to achieve." Karen Chen said that at present, the global container ship, the ship age of new vessels of less than 10 years accounted for more than 60%, less than 15 years of age of the ship container ship proportion is as high as about 85% "Usually a boat may be around 20 years to take into account the abandon ship recycling, the update cycle of global shipbuilding industry is yet to come."
Leaving the market worried that the current shipbuilding industry is still in the stage of overcapacity. Karen Chen also admitted that after 2008, the global financial crisis, the global shipbuilding industry began to slump, this time, many domestic consortium and the banking system have poured into shipbuilding "buy the dips."
"They think the ship is well fixed assets, and has a very high investment value," said Karen Chen, after this wave of hot money to enter, after the trough of the domestic shipbuilding industry is pushed, there is a big bubble, many shipbuilding Although the short-term business orders rose, but the ship did not change the demand side, finally, since 2015, some domestic shipbuilding companies began to go bankrupt.
"At present, the shipbuilding industry" bubble "is not completely shattered, follow-up, there may be a number of shipbuilding companies were whipsaw out.