2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight r
- Author:Revin
- Release Date:2022-02-16
Xeneta is a company that tracks long-term and short-term sea freight rates. The company's CEO Patrik Berglund said: "I have never seen this situation, we will enter a bidding season that is different from any other situation in history."
Berglund refers to the advantages of shipping companies that have an unusual imbalance they have in negotiations with the cargo owners in 2022, which determines the cost of the shipper to pay in the next year and years. "If you are a bus operator and master all the cards, you can drive all the leverage to optimize your business." Berglund said he did this.
In the case of the chain of the new chain of the new championship, the immediate rates of crossing the Pacific region have risen to the dazzling height, but in theory, the might of exchange rate may fall rapidly. In the long-term market, the shipper is committed to ensuring the volume and price within a certain period of time, and the liner can lock long-term benefits.
2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight rate
The change in the annual period and multi-year contract price is especially important to the liner company, shipper, and ultimate import commodity consumers.
▎ "The ridiculous freight, the unprecedented spread of history"
The long-term contract data of Xeneta shows that on the basis of the annual growth in 2021, the long-term contract price this year has further increased.
In the first half of last year, Asia-Miyi had a average long-term rate of approximately $ 3,000 / feu, until October, each Feu price is $ 6,000 to $ 5,500. Berglund said: "In 2022, we believed that $ 7,000-8,000 is an early indicator."
The lower price limit of the long-term market - the largest shipper has achieved the most favorable transactions - the current price is about $ 3,000 / feu, which is the same as the average price of the entire long-term market a year ago.
"We have seen an unprecedented spread." Berglund added, he refers to the largest shipper paying the minimum long-term contract price and the smallest shipper paying the highest price difference.
Xeneta currently sets the spot price of Asia - Meixi to $ 10,000 / feu, and some goods need to pay an additional priority shipping charge of $ 1400 to $ 7,500. This makes the highest rate of about $ 17,500, with the cheapest, lowest contract price of around $ 14,500.
2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight rate
"These numbers are too ridiculous." Berglund said that in 2019, the spread between $ 1300 and $ 1800 before the new crown epidemic, and now the gap is 10 times. This means that the most unfair treatment is the most, the most difficult situation is a smaller shipper. This situation has a longer time, the more beneficial to the big ship's shipper, even though this is painful. "
▎ Cross the Pacific Contract Face "Historic Risk"
The next happened situation will have a major impact on long-term contracts across the Pacific route, and many contracts will take effect in May.
Last week, Maersk released a full-year performance expectation, and it is expected that the current market situation will gradually return to normal from the second half.
According to Berglund: "By consulting the carrier and freight forwarding and shipping terms, some people expect the spot market to weaken with the end of the year, and some people expect the market to have more fluctuations. I personally Yes, the bus operator will counterattack to avoid too many market fresses, and the supply chain efficiency is also improved, so I think the freight rate is more likely to tend to stabilize, not a decline. "
But if the expense rate really falls into the cliff? What does this mean? "When you sign a 12 or 24-month (fixed rate) contract today, it will bring historical risks because the market is in such a peak. After 12 months or 24 months, you may look Like a fool. "Berglund said.
"For example, if a medium consignor signs a long-term contract with a price of 10,000 USD / Feu, the spot price is reduced to $ 5,000, and the new long-term price is reduced to $ 4,000, according to the peak of the market. The cost of signing the contract is multiplied by thousands of boxes, which will have a huge impact. "
2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight rate
Berglund recommends that the shipper of low profit goods should be particularly vigilant. This type of shipper needs to ensure that they can accommodate the market to some extent, the contract period is up to 12 months. The other end is a shipper with high profits and high value items, they focus more on ensuring the safety of the boxes and the cabin, not the price.
"These participants can bear the risk of falling in the spot market. This is the strategic decision of their business, and they have a high price for ensuring the stability of the supply chain. If you have high profit products, keep the supply chain complete and ensure product circulation It is more important than optimization as low as possible. "
▎ ▎ ▎ 年 合 合 合 合 合 合
Another way to use its market forces is to promote beneficial goods (BCOS) reach a multi-year agreement. Considering that in 2023 - 2024 will usher in a wave of new ships to deliver the wave, cover the contract of the carrier's spot cargo market in this period.
Berglund believes that European shipping companies have a big difference, and Europe is much more interest in multi-year contracts.
Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maerska Shipping and Logistics, said that the current multi-year contract includes two-year fixed rate contract, but most contracts have been three to ten years, and regular adjustment rates. The rate is mainly adjusted according to the monthly container trade statistics (CTS) index, not a large index of fluctuations. The CTS index is provided by the rate information from the bus operator.
2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight rate
Berglund commented: "When the client needs to agree to use the index built by the seller, this shows a lot. It is a shipping company that provides data to the CTS index. This is a major concern for many customers. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, transport The market has changed from the buyer's market to the seller market. In the seller market, the seller decided to clause. "
The data received through the Xneta platform, Berglund found that there were shroud operators and other indices such as SCFI for long-term contract rate adjustments. He also confirmed that Xeneta's long-term rate index is being used for a long-term contract for rate adjustment.
As some bus operators drive more multi-year transactions, Berglund questioned what happened when the market turned to the owner. "Let us see how these agreements play a role in the second year, the third and fourth years. This industry has a history that is not loyal according to the market situation. The only harmony is when you reach some degree of balance. Operation The merchant can't really punish the owner who does not follow the contract, there is always one day, the situation will change. We have a lot of goods owners now just flatten breathing, waiting to return the pressure to the operator. "
Shipping companies are also eliminated some freight forwarders in their market control, and turn directly to the owner.
Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maerska and Logistics, said at the conference call: "As we increase the classification of long-term customers, this means that by default, we are reducing the share of freight forwarders, and will be reduced to 25% by 2022. -30%. "
"At present, the profitability of freight forwarders transactions is obviously very high, because they pay mainly of the current short-term market price, but we decided to give up some spot opportunities to truly invest in long-term relationships."
Berglund refers to the advantages of shipping companies that have an unusual imbalance they have in negotiations with the cargo owners in 2022, which determines the cost of the shipper to pay in the next year and years. "If you are a bus operator and master all the cards, you can drive all the leverage to optimize your business." Berglund said he did this.
In the case of the chain of the new chain of the new championship, the immediate rates of crossing the Pacific region have risen to the dazzling height, but in theory, the might of exchange rate may fall rapidly. In the long-term market, the shipper is committed to ensuring the volume and price within a certain period of time, and the liner can lock long-term benefits.
2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight rate
The change in the annual period and multi-year contract price is especially important to the liner company, shipper, and ultimate import commodity consumers.
▎ "The ridiculous freight, the unprecedented spread of history"
The long-term contract data of Xeneta shows that on the basis of the annual growth in 2021, the long-term contract price this year has further increased.
In the first half of last year, Asia-Miyi had a average long-term rate of approximately $ 3,000 / feu, until October, each Feu price is $ 6,000 to $ 5,500. Berglund said: "In 2022, we believed that $ 7,000-8,000 is an early indicator."
The lower price limit of the long-term market - the largest shipper has achieved the most favorable transactions - the current price is about $ 3,000 / feu, which is the same as the average price of the entire long-term market a year ago.
"We have seen an unprecedented spread." Berglund added, he refers to the largest shipper paying the minimum long-term contract price and the smallest shipper paying the highest price difference.
Xeneta currently sets the spot price of Asia - Meixi to $ 10,000 / feu, and some goods need to pay an additional priority shipping charge of $ 1400 to $ 7,500. This makes the highest rate of about $ 17,500, with the cheapest, lowest contract price of around $ 14,500.
2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight rate
"These numbers are too ridiculous." Berglund said that in 2019, the spread between $ 1300 and $ 1800 before the new crown epidemic, and now the gap is 10 times. This means that the most unfair treatment is the most, the most difficult situation is a smaller shipper. This situation has a longer time, the more beneficial to the big ship's shipper, even though this is painful. "
▎ Cross the Pacific Contract Face "Historic Risk"
The next happened situation will have a major impact on long-term contracts across the Pacific route, and many contracts will take effect in May.
Last week, Maersk released a full-year performance expectation, and it is expected that the current market situation will gradually return to normal from the second half.
According to Berglund: "By consulting the carrier and freight forwarding and shipping terms, some people expect the spot market to weaken with the end of the year, and some people expect the market to have more fluctuations. I personally Yes, the bus operator will counterattack to avoid too many market fresses, and the supply chain efficiency is also improved, so I think the freight rate is more likely to tend to stabilize, not a decline. "
But if the expense rate really falls into the cliff? What does this mean? "When you sign a 12 or 24-month (fixed rate) contract today, it will bring historical risks because the market is in such a peak. After 12 months or 24 months, you may look Like a fool. "Berglund said.
"For example, if a medium consignor signs a long-term contract with a price of 10,000 USD / Feu, the spot price is reduced to $ 5,000, and the new long-term price is reduced to $ 4,000, according to the peak of the market. The cost of signing the contract is multiplied by thousands of boxes, which will have a huge impact. "
2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight rate
Berglund recommends that the shipper of low profit goods should be particularly vigilant. This type of shipper needs to ensure that they can accommodate the market to some extent, the contract period is up to 12 months. The other end is a shipper with high profits and high value items, they focus more on ensuring the safety of the boxes and the cabin, not the price.
"These participants can bear the risk of falling in the spot market. This is the strategic decision of their business, and they have a high price for ensuring the stability of the supply chain. If you have high profit products, keep the supply chain complete and ensure product circulation It is more important than optimization as low as possible. "
▎ ▎ ▎ 年 合 合 合 合 合 合
Another way to use its market forces is to promote beneficial goods (BCOS) reach a multi-year agreement. Considering that in 2023 - 2024 will usher in a wave of new ships to deliver the wave, cover the contract of the carrier's spot cargo market in this period.
Berglund believes that European shipping companies have a big difference, and Europe is much more interest in multi-year contracts.
Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maerska Shipping and Logistics, said that the current multi-year contract includes two-year fixed rate contract, but most contracts have been three to ten years, and regular adjustment rates. The rate is mainly adjusted according to the monthly container trade statistics (CTS) index, not a large index of fluctuations. The CTS index is provided by the rate information from the bus operator.
2022 long-term contract trend and analysis, a new round of long-term contract locks higher freight rate
Berglund commented: "When the client needs to agree to use the index built by the seller, this shows a lot. It is a shipping company that provides data to the CTS index. This is a major concern for many customers. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, transport The market has changed from the buyer's market to the seller market. In the seller market, the seller decided to clause. "
The data received through the Xneta platform, Berglund found that there were shroud operators and other indices such as SCFI for long-term contract rate adjustments. He also confirmed that Xeneta's long-term rate index is being used for a long-term contract for rate adjustment.
As some bus operators drive more multi-year transactions, Berglund questioned what happened when the market turned to the owner. "Let us see how these agreements play a role in the second year, the third and fourth years. This industry has a history that is not loyal according to the market situation. The only harmony is when you reach some degree of balance. Operation The merchant can't really punish the owner who does not follow the contract, there is always one day, the situation will change. We have a lot of goods owners now just flatten breathing, waiting to return the pressure to the operator. "
Shipping companies are also eliminated some freight forwarders in their market control, and turn directly to the owner.
Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maerska and Logistics, said at the conference call: "As we increase the classification of long-term customers, this means that by default, we are reducing the share of freight forwarders, and will be reduced to 25% by 2022. -30%. "
"At present, the profitability of freight forwarders transactions is obviously very high, because they pay mainly of the current short-term market price, but we decided to give up some spot opportunities to truly invest in long-term relationships."