Adjustment of unexpected epidemic prevention policies brings new hope to the shipping market
- Author:sofreight.com
- Release Date:2022-12-15
The market understanding has stated that China has relaxed the prevention and control restrictions faster than expected, which will support the demand for the tanker and dry bulk market and improve the condition of the container transportation market.
The sudden change of the policy was when China's exports were slippery. On Wednesday, the Chinese government reported that the total value of goods exports in November fell by 8.7%year -on -year.
China ’s exports to the United States decreased by 25%year -on -year, which was twice as much as a year -on -year decrease of 12.6%in October.Since June, China's exports to the United States have fallen by 27%.The United States accounted for only 13.8%of China's total export value last month, and was lower than 17%in July.
Container trade may take a while to recover
Pantheon Economics wrote: "China’ s trade data in November has poured us a pot of cold water. Previously, we predict that exports and imports will deteriorate in the next few months, and then improve in 2023. "
Evercore ISI analyst Neo Wang pointed out that the government has launched three months earlier than we expect, but even so, he warns that recovery takes time.
Wang warned: "Policy changes may bring more public fear, spread infection, and shortage of labor, and the economy may not recover quickly."
There is another reason for the export volume of containers to climb immediately. Pantheon Economics pointed out that the current weakness is more due to the decline in overseas demand, not the blocking of the supply chain.
China's export product data shows similar to South Korea: As consumers change consumer models, the shipments of electronic products have decreased, and automobile exports are strong, and car manufacturers are rushing to order before."
The oil tanker demand may come quickly
The weak demand for crude oil in China is one of the main reasons for the decline in freight rates last year and this year.In recent months, the resumption of crude oil production has supported VLCC's high freight rates.
Jefferies shipping analyst Omar Nokta said: "Looking forward to the future, China's re -open policy may have a significant positive impact on the VLCC market because China is the largest super VLCC leased country."
With the relaxation of the restrictions on the new crown epidemic, the liquidity of Chinese citizens is getting higher and higher, and fuel consumption is getting greater and greater, so the higher the demand for crude oil imports.ARGUS reported on Wednesday that China's liquidity has been increased and the profit margin of gasoline has also increased.
ARGUS's survey shows that in the first week of December, China Petroleum increased the purchase volume of crude oil, which has exceeded 16.4 million barrels, which means that the import volume of crude oil in China in December will increase by a considerable increase of more than 2640 in November.Thousands of barrels.
There is a trend of uplinking in dry bulk, but it is only significant in 2023
Among all shipping sectors, dry bulk goods have the greatest impact on China.Due to the blockade of China's new crown epidemic and the crisis of the real estate market, the demand for dry bulk was hit hard.
"Deutsche Bank) analysts Amit Mehrotra and Chris Robertson said:" Getting rid of restricted epidemic prevention measures and stabilizing and supporting the domestic real estate market are the key to strengthening the basic needs of dry bulk goods. "
Mehrotra and Robertson said: "The release of policies will boost the dry bulk market, but it is expected that this impact is lagging and it takes a period of time to appear. We believe that this situation will be second in 2023.The quarter will be displayed significantly. In the winter of winter, the possibility of virus diffusion is greater, and the actual effect of policy changes will not be obvious.
On December 1, S & P global analyst Liz Gao also predicted that it was lagging.She pointed out: "In January, China will usher in the New Year holiday of the lunar calendar, and the number of Chinese citizens will surge, so the spread of Omiklon will be faster."
"COMMODORE Research President Jeffrey Landsberg said:" For dry bulk transportation, China's demand will unexpectedly upward, which is a good time to see a bullish. "
The sudden change of the policy was when China's exports were slippery. On Wednesday, the Chinese government reported that the total value of goods exports in November fell by 8.7%year -on -year.
China ’s exports to the United States decreased by 25%year -on -year, which was twice as much as a year -on -year decrease of 12.6%in October.Since June, China's exports to the United States have fallen by 27%.The United States accounted for only 13.8%of China's total export value last month, and was lower than 17%in July.
Container trade may take a while to recover
Pantheon Economics wrote: "China’ s trade data in November has poured us a pot of cold water. Previously, we predict that exports and imports will deteriorate in the next few months, and then improve in 2023. "
Evercore ISI analyst Neo Wang pointed out that the government has launched three months earlier than we expect, but even so, he warns that recovery takes time.
Wang warned: "Policy changes may bring more public fear, spread infection, and shortage of labor, and the economy may not recover quickly."
There is another reason for the export volume of containers to climb immediately. Pantheon Economics pointed out that the current weakness is more due to the decline in overseas demand, not the blocking of the supply chain.
China's export product data shows similar to South Korea: As consumers change consumer models, the shipments of electronic products have decreased, and automobile exports are strong, and car manufacturers are rushing to order before."
The oil tanker demand may come quickly
The weak demand for crude oil in China is one of the main reasons for the decline in freight rates last year and this year.In recent months, the resumption of crude oil production has supported VLCC's high freight rates.
Jefferies shipping analyst Omar Nokta said: "Looking forward to the future, China's re -open policy may have a significant positive impact on the VLCC market because China is the largest super VLCC leased country."
With the relaxation of the restrictions on the new crown epidemic, the liquidity of Chinese citizens is getting higher and higher, and fuel consumption is getting greater and greater, so the higher the demand for crude oil imports.ARGUS reported on Wednesday that China's liquidity has been increased and the profit margin of gasoline has also increased.
ARGUS's survey shows that in the first week of December, China Petroleum increased the purchase volume of crude oil, which has exceeded 16.4 million barrels, which means that the import volume of crude oil in China in December will increase by a considerable increase of more than 2640 in November.Thousands of barrels.
There is a trend of uplinking in dry bulk, but it is only significant in 2023
Among all shipping sectors, dry bulk goods have the greatest impact on China.Due to the blockade of China's new crown epidemic and the crisis of the real estate market, the demand for dry bulk was hit hard.
"Deutsche Bank) analysts Amit Mehrotra and Chris Robertson said:" Getting rid of restricted epidemic prevention measures and stabilizing and supporting the domestic real estate market are the key to strengthening the basic needs of dry bulk goods. "
Mehrotra and Robertson said: "The release of policies will boost the dry bulk market, but it is expected that this impact is lagging and it takes a period of time to appear. We believe that this situation will be second in 2023.The quarter will be displayed significantly. In the winter of winter, the possibility of virus diffusion is greater, and the actual effect of policy changes will not be obvious.
On December 1, S & P global analyst Liz Gao also predicted that it was lagging.She pointed out: "In January, China will usher in the New Year holiday of the lunar calendar, and the number of Chinese citizens will surge, so the spread of Omiklon will be faster."
"COMMODORE Research President Jeffrey Landsberg said:" For dry bulk transportation, China's demand will unexpectedly upward, which is a good time to see a bullish. "