Coal inventory has a record high in history. Why is the price of coal still rising?
- Author:Elena
- Release Date:2023-05-22
The latest data released by CCTD China Coal Market Network shows that as of May 18, the four major port coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port, Jingtang Port, Caofeidian Port, and Huanghua Port of the Bohai Rim Riming has reached 28.22 million tons, a record high in the same period.As of May 16, the electric coal inventory of the eight coastal provinces had more than 35 million tons, and the inventory increased by 18.3%year -on -year, which was also at a high level of history.
The high inventory of electric coal transfer and terminal consumption shows that the current supply is relatively loose.In the past, the phenomenon of coal prices had a significant downward trend.However, there are still some links of coal prices rising, and many coal trading companies are still raising their prices.While the inventory is high, why is the coal price still rising?
"In the short term, there are some sudden factors that affect local coal prices." Yang Jie, deputy director of the Research Department of the Easy Coal Research Institute, told reporters from the Shanghai Securities News that it was suspended by the withdrawal of open -air coal mines in Inner Mongolia.In the case of the suspension of production of some private ore and the stricter security inspection, the supply of coal supply in the main production area has tightening expectations.
People who are familiar with coal mine production and sales of Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places also confirmed to reporters that due to factors such as recently rising large -scale coal mine auction prices, some private coal mines have risen tentatively./Ton, the remaining increases are concentrated at 10 yuan to 20 yuan per ton.
"However, at present, the coal inventory of the Bohai Rim port has accumulated a high level of more than 28 million tons. At the same time, the inventory of the Yangtze River and South Port has risen rapidly, and the supply of coal is relatively loose. Even if some production areas are disturbed in the short term, the market will not lack coal."Yang Jie said that the current coal market has a complex trend of high output, high imports, high inventory, and low demand. However, the price of coal has not been obviously loose, and there is obviously more complicated and fierce games behind it.
Data show that the power generation of industries above designated size increased by 6.1%year -on -year, of which thermal power increased by 11.5%year -on -year, and the growth rate increased by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month.Tian Yajuan, an analyst of Qinhuangdao Coal Network, believes that under the increasing increase in electricity consumption in the whole society, it is expected that my country's power generation will continue to be up in May. In view of the fact that hydropower is not as expected, power plants still cannot relax the purchase of coal procurement , Especially when the peak summer season is coming, the terminal must be fully prepared.
According to the recent interviews with relevant enterprises, the power supply situation and the power grid side are generally expected to be relatively tight this summer, and coal power will continue to play the role of "cockpit stone" during the peak period of load.
"Since this year, some traders have hoarded a number of high -cost coal." Yang Jie said that even if the inventory continues to increase, it is difficult for traders to make a decision to easily reduce the inventory.Recent data such as the power consumption of the whole society has further strengthened some market forces' confidence in the level of coal consumption in peak summer coal, so coal prices are still supported.Yang Jie believes that once the actual needs of this year's peak summer, the coal price may usher in a deep callback.
The preparation office of China Electric Coal Procurement Price Index (CECI) believes that the coal inventory of the power plant is supplemented by the long -term association and imported coal, and continues to maintain a high level. The demand for the power of the remedial industry is insufficient.Terminal demand may still be weak.In the context of high inventory, a minority factor factors are still not enough to support the current coal prices.In the short term, coal prices may be shocked downward.Power generation enterprises should grasp the procurement rhythm in a timely manner according to inventory level, long -term coal redeeming situation and peak summer inventory optimization strategy.
The high inventory of electric coal transfer and terminal consumption shows that the current supply is relatively loose.In the past, the phenomenon of coal prices had a significant downward trend.However, there are still some links of coal prices rising, and many coal trading companies are still raising their prices.While the inventory is high, why is the coal price still rising?
"In the short term, there are some sudden factors that affect local coal prices." Yang Jie, deputy director of the Research Department of the Easy Coal Research Institute, told reporters from the Shanghai Securities News that it was suspended by the withdrawal of open -air coal mines in Inner Mongolia.In the case of the suspension of production of some private ore and the stricter security inspection, the supply of coal supply in the main production area has tightening expectations.
People who are familiar with coal mine production and sales of Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places also confirmed to reporters that due to factors such as recently rising large -scale coal mine auction prices, some private coal mines have risen tentatively./Ton, the remaining increases are concentrated at 10 yuan to 20 yuan per ton.
"However, at present, the coal inventory of the Bohai Rim port has accumulated a high level of more than 28 million tons. At the same time, the inventory of the Yangtze River and South Port has risen rapidly, and the supply of coal is relatively loose. Even if some production areas are disturbed in the short term, the market will not lack coal."Yang Jie said that the current coal market has a complex trend of high output, high imports, high inventory, and low demand. However, the price of coal has not been obviously loose, and there is obviously more complicated and fierce games behind it.
Data show that the power generation of industries above designated size increased by 6.1%year -on -year, of which thermal power increased by 11.5%year -on -year, and the growth rate increased by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month.Tian Yajuan, an analyst of Qinhuangdao Coal Network, believes that under the increasing increase in electricity consumption in the whole society, it is expected that my country's power generation will continue to be up in May. In view of the fact that hydropower is not as expected, power plants still cannot relax the purchase of coal procurement , Especially when the peak summer season is coming, the terminal must be fully prepared.
According to the recent interviews with relevant enterprises, the power supply situation and the power grid side are generally expected to be relatively tight this summer, and coal power will continue to play the role of "cockpit stone" during the peak period of load.
"Since this year, some traders have hoarded a number of high -cost coal." Yang Jie said that even if the inventory continues to increase, it is difficult for traders to make a decision to easily reduce the inventory.Recent data such as the power consumption of the whole society has further strengthened some market forces' confidence in the level of coal consumption in peak summer coal, so coal prices are still supported.Yang Jie believes that once the actual needs of this year's peak summer, the coal price may usher in a deep callback.
The preparation office of China Electric Coal Procurement Price Index (CECI) believes that the coal inventory of the power plant is supplemented by the long -term association and imported coal, and continues to maintain a high level. The demand for the power of the remedial industry is insufficient.Terminal demand may still be weak.In the context of high inventory, a minority factor factors are still not enough to support the current coal prices.In the short term, coal prices may be shocked downward.Power generation enterprises should grasp the procurement rhythm in a timely manner according to inventory level, long -term coal redeeming situation and peak summer inventory optimization strategy.