Does the US importer over -cut orders have created conditions for the rebound of the shipping market
- Author:sofreight.com
- Release Date:2022-10-27
The US supply chain is in the pain of the "bull whip effect". Excessive reactions of the importers' congestion and increased consumer demand last year have been imported prematurely, and they are now in the predicament of excess inventory. Will there be the opposite direction next year?
Rolf Habbben Jansen, CEO of Herbelot, said that this is possible. He talked about this in an online discussion on Monday and his views on future freight and capacity.
Habben Jansen said: "There is still a lot of fluctuations in the market, and everyone seems to be doing the same thing and always react. At the beginning of the outbreak, our freight volume decreased by 20%in two weeks, because everyone is everyone in two weeks, because everyone is everyone. Start cutting orders. Later, the economic recovery, everyone started ordering crazy. "
"This summer, we see a lot of people (to arrive in advance) to order Christmas supplies, so a large number of orders have arrived in advance. Now, we see congestion relief, excess inventory, warehouses are filled, everyone cuts the order crazy. Another extreme. "
"I'm waiting for the next step. Because I am sure that I am sure that what we see now is an excessive reaction. At this stage, people who try to reduce all possible expenses will find that potential consumer demand is actually relatively healthy. Suddenly, they will start to worry about their inventory a little bit, we may see a rebound. "
▪ The freight after the epidemic should be higher than before the epidemic
Early Christmas goods to summer, leading to a gap in demand this fall. The continuous decline in the spot freight rates has continued to decline, and although the recent decline has slowed down, the main reason is that the shipping company has cut more capacity to balance the market.
Measured by the size of the fleet, Herbertat is the fifth largest shipping company in the world. The company's chief executives still believe that the freight after the epidemic will eventually be higher than the freight before the epidemic.
"In the short term, it may happen in any case. I think we will see the level of the freight for weeks or a few days above, approaching or lower than the level before the epidemic. More importantly, it is longer."
"In the end, whether we like or not, the cost has risen sharply in the past few years. Regular rental fees have risen and have promised to extend the lease period; the cost of the terminal has risen and fuel costs have also risen. This has led to the rise in the average unit cost of the industry. What we saw in the past 10 years (before the outbreak) is that freight is often slightly higher than costs. As the future cost will be higher than the level before the epidemic, Habben Jansen believes that from the long run, freight rates will be higher than before the epidemic.
▪ Herbelot CEO regards the new ship orders as a positive factor
Beginning next year, a large number of new ships will be put into use, which will be discussed under the premise that the shipping company will not be caught in a price war.
Habben Jansen does not seem to worry about all new ships. "Of course, the current orders must be a bit high, but on the other hand, in the years before 2020, we have insufficient investment in the industry. It's. "
"We will see how the result is. I think the number of scrap (removing old ships) will increase significantly. It is also necessary to see if all new ships can be produced and delivered on time. We heard the first report of some delays in shipyards."
Habben Jansen continued: "Our capacity will not be as nervous as in the past two years. It is a good thing to have a buffer."
"In 2020, when the demand is soaring, we see that there are no surplus in the system, which is why there are many bottlenecks. If our system has 3%, 4%, and 5%of the surplus, this will allow us to allow us Quickly respond when the peak appears and prevent some of the situations that occur over the past few years. This will give us the flexibility we need and help us re -establish the trust of customers. "
Rolf Habbben Jansen, CEO of Herbelot, said that this is possible. He talked about this in an online discussion on Monday and his views on future freight and capacity.
Habben Jansen said: "There is still a lot of fluctuations in the market, and everyone seems to be doing the same thing and always react. At the beginning of the outbreak, our freight volume decreased by 20%in two weeks, because everyone is everyone in two weeks, because everyone is everyone. Start cutting orders. Later, the economic recovery, everyone started ordering crazy. "
"This summer, we see a lot of people (to arrive in advance) to order Christmas supplies, so a large number of orders have arrived in advance. Now, we see congestion relief, excess inventory, warehouses are filled, everyone cuts the order crazy. Another extreme. "
"I'm waiting for the next step. Because I am sure that I am sure that what we see now is an excessive reaction. At this stage, people who try to reduce all possible expenses will find that potential consumer demand is actually relatively healthy. Suddenly, they will start to worry about their inventory a little bit, we may see a rebound. "
▪ The freight after the epidemic should be higher than before the epidemic
Early Christmas goods to summer, leading to a gap in demand this fall. The continuous decline in the spot freight rates has continued to decline, and although the recent decline has slowed down, the main reason is that the shipping company has cut more capacity to balance the market.
Measured by the size of the fleet, Herbertat is the fifth largest shipping company in the world. The company's chief executives still believe that the freight after the epidemic will eventually be higher than the freight before the epidemic.
"In the short term, it may happen in any case. I think we will see the level of the freight for weeks or a few days above, approaching or lower than the level before the epidemic. More importantly, it is longer."
"In the end, whether we like or not, the cost has risen sharply in the past few years. Regular rental fees have risen and have promised to extend the lease period; the cost of the terminal has risen and fuel costs have also risen. This has led to the rise in the average unit cost of the industry. What we saw in the past 10 years (before the outbreak) is that freight is often slightly higher than costs. As the future cost will be higher than the level before the epidemic, Habben Jansen believes that from the long run, freight rates will be higher than before the epidemic.
▪ Herbelot CEO regards the new ship orders as a positive factor
Beginning next year, a large number of new ships will be put into use, which will be discussed under the premise that the shipping company will not be caught in a price war.
Habben Jansen does not seem to worry about all new ships. "Of course, the current orders must be a bit high, but on the other hand, in the years before 2020, we have insufficient investment in the industry. It's. "
"We will see how the result is. I think the number of scrap (removing old ships) will increase significantly. It is also necessary to see if all new ships can be produced and delivered on time. We heard the first report of some delays in shipyards."
Habben Jansen continued: "Our capacity will not be as nervous as in the past two years. It is a good thing to have a buffer."
"In 2020, when the demand is soaring, we see that there are no surplus in the system, which is why there are many bottlenecks. If our system has 3%, 4%, and 5%of the surplus, this will allow us to allow us Quickly respond when the peak appears and prevent some of the situations that occur over the past few years. This will give us the flexibility we need and help us re -establish the trust of customers. "