Falling out of a new low!Will international oil prices "vomit" all the increases during th
- Author:sofreight.com
- Release Date:2022-12-15
On December 12, as of the press time, WTI New York crude oil futures fell 0.18%to $ 70.89/barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.63%in February February to 75.62 US dollars/barrel, the lowest fell to $ 75.55/USA/bucket.
Compared with the historical high of more than 140 US dollars per barrel this year, the current international oil prices have been a new low in the past year, and they have "vomited" all the increase in Russia and Ukraine's conflict.
In fact, the recent weakness of market demand and the implementation of the "price limit order" of Russian oil oil have all affected the trend of international oil prices.
On December 11, the "Chief Macro Report: Chief Macro Report: Weak Demand Driving Oil Prices New Low" released by the team of Ping An Securities Chief Economist Zhong Zhengsheng pointed out that since November this year, international oil prices have continued to settle down, a new low in the year.
In Zhong Zhengsheng's opinion, the reason behind this is on the one hand, the "price limit order" of Russian crude oil exports has officially exacerbated oil price fluctuations, and on the other hand, it also reflects the market's pessimistic expectations for demand.
According to the prediction data of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), the global economic growth rate will decline to 2.2%in 2023, below the 3.1%growth rate in 2022.Among them, the US economic growth rate will be reduced from 1.8%in 2022 to 0.5%in 2023, and the euro zone will be reduced from 3.3%to 0.5%.
Similarly, the latest short -term energy outlook report released by the US Energy Information Administration EIA also shows the "signs" with insufficient crude oil demand.The agency will reduce the global crude oil demand growth rate of 160,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 1 million barrels/day, and at the same time, the number of crude oil prices this year and next year is expected.
In addition, the implementation of the upper limit of oil price and embargo sanctions may also be one of the driving factors that have fallen to a new low.The "price limit order" for Russia's export crude oil began in September this year and officially took effect on December 5.
Starting from December 5, the EU, the Seventh -way Group (G7) and Australia have begun to implement the price limit of $ 60/barrel to the Russian shipping export crude oil.The price limit measure means that anyone who wants to obtain the key services provided by the EU (especially shipping insurance) can only purchase Russian oil at the upper limit of the price.
According to reporters, oil tankers are the main way to export oil exports to the European market. Russia imported by the European Union is two -thirds of oil transportation through oil tankers and one -third of the remaining pipeline transportation.In 2021, Russia is the largest importer of crude oil in the European Union, accounting for 27%of EU crude oil imports.According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) data, European Ping imported 2.2 million barrels of crude oil from Russia last year and 1.2 million barrels of refined oil.
Talking about the impact of the "price limit order", Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst of CITIC Futures, told reporters: "Although Russia has transferred a large part of European crude oil exports to Asia in the second half of this year.Insufficient, it may cause Russia to be forced to cut exports. The price limit plan ensures sufficient capacity, that is, as long as the price of the crude oil of the ship can not exceed 60 US dollars/barrel, the tanker may not be subject to sanctions.The risk has further declined. But it still needs to pay attention to the possibility of Russia's active reduction of production if the oil price plummets. "
In response to the policy of the export price of $ 60/barrel, Feng Delin, chairman of the European Commission, publicly stated: "The European Union has reached an agreement on Russian crude oil limit. In addition, the coordinated operations of the Seven Kingdoms and other countries will greatly reduce Russian energy export revenue.It also helps to stabilize global energy prices. "
When talking about the direction of oil prices in the market outlook, the institution is expected to be more optimistic.Goldman Sachs believes that the future price of Brent crude oil next year is $ 110 per barrel, and there is nearly 30%of the rise.Morgan Stanley believes that Brent oil prices will fluctuate within the range of $ 85 per barrel/barrel to $ 100/barrel.
Compared with the historical high of more than 140 US dollars per barrel this year, the current international oil prices have been a new low in the past year, and they have "vomited" all the increase in Russia and Ukraine's conflict.
In fact, the recent weakness of market demand and the implementation of the "price limit order" of Russian oil oil have all affected the trend of international oil prices.
On December 11, the "Chief Macro Report: Chief Macro Report: Weak Demand Driving Oil Prices New Low" released by the team of Ping An Securities Chief Economist Zhong Zhengsheng pointed out that since November this year, international oil prices have continued to settle down, a new low in the year.
In Zhong Zhengsheng's opinion, the reason behind this is on the one hand, the "price limit order" of Russian crude oil exports has officially exacerbated oil price fluctuations, and on the other hand, it also reflects the market's pessimistic expectations for demand.
According to the prediction data of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), the global economic growth rate will decline to 2.2%in 2023, below the 3.1%growth rate in 2022.Among them, the US economic growth rate will be reduced from 1.8%in 2022 to 0.5%in 2023, and the euro zone will be reduced from 3.3%to 0.5%.
Similarly, the latest short -term energy outlook report released by the US Energy Information Administration EIA also shows the "signs" with insufficient crude oil demand.The agency will reduce the global crude oil demand growth rate of 160,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 1 million barrels/day, and at the same time, the number of crude oil prices this year and next year is expected.
In addition, the implementation of the upper limit of oil price and embargo sanctions may also be one of the driving factors that have fallen to a new low.The "price limit order" for Russia's export crude oil began in September this year and officially took effect on December 5.
Starting from December 5, the EU, the Seventh -way Group (G7) and Australia have begun to implement the price limit of $ 60/barrel to the Russian shipping export crude oil.The price limit measure means that anyone who wants to obtain the key services provided by the EU (especially shipping insurance) can only purchase Russian oil at the upper limit of the price.
According to reporters, oil tankers are the main way to export oil exports to the European market. Russia imported by the European Union is two -thirds of oil transportation through oil tankers and one -third of the remaining pipeline transportation.In 2021, Russia is the largest importer of crude oil in the European Union, accounting for 27%of EU crude oil imports.According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) data, European Ping imported 2.2 million barrels of crude oil from Russia last year and 1.2 million barrels of refined oil.
Talking about the impact of the "price limit order", Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst of CITIC Futures, told reporters: "Although Russia has transferred a large part of European crude oil exports to Asia in the second half of this year.Insufficient, it may cause Russia to be forced to cut exports. The price limit plan ensures sufficient capacity, that is, as long as the price of the crude oil of the ship can not exceed 60 US dollars/barrel, the tanker may not be subject to sanctions.The risk has further declined. But it still needs to pay attention to the possibility of Russia's active reduction of production if the oil price plummets. "
In response to the policy of the export price of $ 60/barrel, Feng Delin, chairman of the European Commission, publicly stated: "The European Union has reached an agreement on Russian crude oil limit. In addition, the coordinated operations of the Seven Kingdoms and other countries will greatly reduce Russian energy export revenue.It also helps to stabilize global energy prices. "
When talking about the direction of oil prices in the market outlook, the institution is expected to be more optimistic.Goldman Sachs believes that the future price of Brent crude oil next year is $ 110 per barrel, and there is nearly 30%of the rise.Morgan Stanley believes that Brent oil prices will fluctuate within the range of $ 85 per barrel/barrel to $ 100/barrel.