From adversity to adversity, review of the development of my country's civil aviation transporta
- Author:Besson
- Release Date:2021-02-27
[Abstract] Since the beginning of 2020, in the face of the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic, the civil aviation industry has followed the principle of "serious, scientific, and calm" to clarify "safe operation, emergency transportation, risk controllable, and meticulous policy". Prevention and control work requires, accurately grasping the changes in the epidemic situation, making scientific decisions, creatively responding, and accurately implementing policies according to the time and the situation, and coordinating the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and safe development. In the major examination of the epidemic, China's civil aviation has withstood a severe test and handed in a qualified answer to the party and the people.
2020 is an extraordinary year. Facing the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the civil aviation industry is the front line of defense for the prevention and control of the epidemic. All civil aviation firmly establishes a people-centered thinking, and earnestly implements the "four guarantees" policy and the "three preventions" requirements, "external defense import, internal defense" "Rebound" to promote the resumption of work and production on the basis of ensuring safety. Over the past year, the entire industry has gone retrograde, and the entire audience has created a good operating environment for major victories in the fight against the epidemic, which has been highly praised by national leaders many times.
1. my country's overall transportation market
(1) The global aviation industry is more impacted by the new crown epidemic
2020 is a turning point for the gradual warming of the global economy, and a crucial year for the development of the air transport industry. But the global pandemic of the new crown epidemic has led to a full-scale transportation crisis. On a global scale, many countries have implemented travel restrictions and flight suspensions in order to curb the spread of the virus. After many countries imposed blockades in late March, the aviation industry came to a standstill in April, causing tremendous damage to the global economy, trade, and logistics. ACI's latest forecast: By the end of 2020, this crisis will reduce the number of passengers by more than 6 billion (compared with the forecast for 2020 before the new crown epidemic), and global passenger traffic will drop by 64.2%. Europe and the Middle East are the two most severely affected regions, with a decline of more than 70% compared to the projected baseline. After being hit by the first epidemic, the Asia-Pacific region began to recover earlier and faster than other regions. It is expected that 2020 will end with a 59.2% decline. This is the only region with a decline of less than 60%. The domestic market in China and other countries led to the recovery.
Figure 1 Changes in the global aviation market in 2020 (data source: ICAO)
(2) The overall recovery trend of my country's civil aviation is improving
Figure 2 2011-2020 my country’s transportation turnover development and changes (data source: Civil Aviation Administration, CIRIUM)
From the perspective of overall market development, my country’s total civil aviation transportation turnover has been ranked second in the world for 15 consecutive years, with significantly enhanced service capabilities, an increasingly prominent strategic position in economic and social development, and increasing international influence and competitiveness. However, this epidemic has a significant impact on my country's civil aviation industry. The impact is mainly reflected in the short- and medium-term impact on aviation business and the management pressure on the continued safety of airport operations, but it does not change the long-term growth trend of aviation business. Due to the effective and effective prevention and control measures of my country's epidemic, China's civil aviation took the lead in the world to bottom out and rebound, becoming the world's fastest-recovering and best-operating aviation market. In 2020, my country's air transport turnover will be more than 78 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year decrease of about 39%.
Figure 3 my country's air traffic changes from January to December 2020 (data source: Civil Aviation Administration, CIRIUM)
Judging from the traffic situation from January to December 2020, the overall recovery of my country's civil aviation market is relatively good, showing a significant "√" type growth. By the end of 2020, it has basically recovered to about 60% to 70% of the same period last year. The month-on-year growth rate of transportation volume gradually decreased, and in September and October, it basically recovered about 90% of the same period last year. The average passenger load factor remained at around 73%, a decrease of about 10 percentage points from the same period last year.
(3) The recovery situation in various regions is uneven
From the perspective of the development of throughput in various regions (or the recovery in various regions), as the effect of my country's epidemic control is more obvious, the recovery of airport passenger throughput is relatively good. Among them, the recovery situation in the southwest region is the best among the seven regions (about 75% of the recovery in the same period), and the northwest region is less affected by the continuous epidemic, so it is second only to the growth rate in the southwest region. The recovery situation in Xinjiang, North China, and Northeast China is still less than 60%, especially the repeated epidemics in Beijing, the continued existence of imported cases in Xinjiang, and the concentrated outbreak of epidemics in Northeast China have slowed the recovery in the above-mentioned areas.
Figure 4 The recovery of passenger throughput in various regions in 2020 (Data source: Civil Aviation Administration, IATA)
Figure 5 The recovery of passenger traffic in each province in 2020 (data source: IATA, CIRIUM)
From the perspective of passenger throughput in various provinces, in 2020, Guangdong Province will have the highest throughput (about 100 million passengers), with a year-on-year growth rate of -35.03%; the throughput of Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan will be about 50 million passengers. The growth rates of Shanghai and Beijing were -49.39% and -53.23% respectively, and the growth rates of the other three provinces were around -25%. Tibet and Qinghai were the two most recovered provinces, with growth rates of -10.36% and- 16.95%.
2. my country's international transportation market
(1) my country's international air transport market is greatly affected by the epidemic
Figure 6 2011-2020 domestic and international passenger traffic (data source: Civil Aviation Administration, CIRIUM)
With the continuous advancement of China's civil aviation's air transportation strategy of "domestic liberalization and international liberalization", China's civil aviation has become closer to the world and has a greater impact on global civil aviation. In this context, since the World Health Organization announced the new coronavirus as a public health emergency (PHEIC) of international concern, more than 70 countries including the United States, Italy, and Australia have announced different levels of entry in order to reduce imported risks. Restrictive measures. 64 airlines around the world, including Delta and British Airways, canceled or partially cancelled flights to China, which caused a rapid decline in my country's international market traffic. In 2020, the international market's traffic volume will be 9.5 million passengers, a year-on-year growth rate of about -87%.
(2) The promulgation of international transportation policies has played a positive role in stabilizing the market
Since the epidemic, China has adopted measures such as "five ones", "one country, one policy", "flight circuit breaker and reward", and first entry point diversion, etc., to build a dense air port joint prevention and control network to maximize containment Imported risks of overseas epidemics; adopt measures such as “passenger-to-cargo” to rapidly improve international air cargo capacity, and support China’s international supply chain to guarantee transportation and supply; actively participate in ICAO’s multilateral cooperation in epidemic prevention and control and resumption of operations, serving the world Civil aviation has joined hands to make contributions to the prevention and control of the epidemic and the recovery and development of the industry. As of 2020, my country has signed bilateral air transport agreements with 128 countries or regions, including 100 countries along the "Belt and Road" route, and maintain regular passenger and freight services with 151 cities in 64 countries.
Figure 7 my country's international market navigation in 2020 (data source: Civil Aviation Administration Work Report, CIRIUM)
3. my country's freight transportation market
(1) The overall development momentum is good
In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the number of international passenger flights has dropped sharply, and the ability to carry cargo in the belly compartment has dropped significantly. To this end, the Civil Aviation Administration has decisively adopted a series of policy measures including encouraging "passenger conversion", opening up "green channels" for domestic and foreign cargo aircraft, and providing government subsidies, and quickly reversed the problem of "no entry or exit". Freight prices have gradually fallen to the normal range, and the air freight market has basically achieved a balance between supply and demand. For the whole year of 2020, the entire industry will complete more than 6.7 million tons of cargo and mail transportation, which has recovered to 89.8% of the same period last year. Among them, the international route completed cargo and mail transportation of 2.23 million tons, which has been restored to 92.2% of the same period last year.
Figure 8 Air cargo traffic statistics from January to December 2020 (data source: IATA, CIRIUM)
(2) Outstanding contributions during the epidemic
Since the epidemic, aviation logistics companies have played a prominent role in "guaranteeing supply and smoothing." First, it has undertaken a large number of epidemic prevention material transportation tasks. The industry will guarantee a total of 9 million flights in 2020, which has recovered to about 78% of the same period last year, providing better support for the transportation of epidemic prevention materials (belly cabins and all-cargo aircraft). The second is to work hard to serve the "resumption of work and production." In addition to anti-epidemic materials, the transportation of import and export materials and raw materials also effectively guarantees the resumption of work and production of my country's import and export production enterprises. At the same time, aviation companies have also used "passenger-to-cargo" methods to relieve the tension of freight capacity on the one hand, and on the other hand, they have also become an important support means to reduce their own operating pressure and quickly restore operating capabilities. Taking China Eastern Airlines as an example, the number of all-cargo planes and "passenger-to-cargo" international cargo flights launched by China Eastern Logistics has reached more than 240 per week. The number of flights in the same period last year has almost doubled, which strongly supports the world. The help of various countries in the prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production of Chinese companies.
Figure 9 Cargo volume share of major airlines in 2020 (Data source: IATA, CIRIUM)
(3) The agglomeration effect gradually appears
As an important carrier for the mutual integration, mutual promotion and mutual improvement of the civil aviation industry and the regional economy, the airport economic zone gathers aviation transportation, high-end manufacturing and modern service industries, relying on aviation hubs and modern integrated transportation systems, and through aviation logistics. Major global logistics consolidators, international large-scale freight forwarding giants and high-end manufacturing companies have formed industrial clusters with their own characteristics, providing high-efficiency, high-quality, and high-value-added products and services.
By the end of 2020, my country has approved a total of 17 national airport economic demonstration zones, including Zhengzhou, Beijing New Airport, Qingdao, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shanghai Hongqiao, and Chengdu. This will help promote the development of the civil aviation industry and optimize my country’s economic development pattern. It is of great significance to deepen opening up and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode. For some inland capital cities and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the construction of airport economic zones has transformed these cities from inland into highlands open to the outside world, promoting many related industries (such as high-tech, pharmaceutical manufacturing, cold chain, etc.) , Which is conducive to exerting comparative advantages, tapping the growth potential of domestic demand, promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, and enhancing the driving role of radiation. It will become an important functional support for "curving overtaking" in inland areas.
2020 is an extraordinary year. Facing the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the civil aviation industry is the front line of defense for the prevention and control of the epidemic. All civil aviation firmly establishes a people-centered thinking, and earnestly implements the "four guarantees" policy and the "three preventions" requirements, "external defense import, internal defense" "Rebound" to promote the resumption of work and production on the basis of ensuring safety. Over the past year, the entire industry has gone retrograde, and the entire audience has created a good operating environment for major victories in the fight against the epidemic, which has been highly praised by national leaders many times.
1. my country's overall transportation market
(1) The global aviation industry is more impacted by the new crown epidemic
2020 is a turning point for the gradual warming of the global economy, and a crucial year for the development of the air transport industry. But the global pandemic of the new crown epidemic has led to a full-scale transportation crisis. On a global scale, many countries have implemented travel restrictions and flight suspensions in order to curb the spread of the virus. After many countries imposed blockades in late March, the aviation industry came to a standstill in April, causing tremendous damage to the global economy, trade, and logistics. ACI's latest forecast: By the end of 2020, this crisis will reduce the number of passengers by more than 6 billion (compared with the forecast for 2020 before the new crown epidemic), and global passenger traffic will drop by 64.2%. Europe and the Middle East are the two most severely affected regions, with a decline of more than 70% compared to the projected baseline. After being hit by the first epidemic, the Asia-Pacific region began to recover earlier and faster than other regions. It is expected that 2020 will end with a 59.2% decline. This is the only region with a decline of less than 60%. The domestic market in China and other countries led to the recovery.
Figure 1 Changes in the global aviation market in 2020 (data source: ICAO)
(2) The overall recovery trend of my country's civil aviation is improving
Figure 2 2011-2020 my country’s transportation turnover development and changes (data source: Civil Aviation Administration, CIRIUM)
From the perspective of overall market development, my country’s total civil aviation transportation turnover has been ranked second in the world for 15 consecutive years, with significantly enhanced service capabilities, an increasingly prominent strategic position in economic and social development, and increasing international influence and competitiveness. However, this epidemic has a significant impact on my country's civil aviation industry. The impact is mainly reflected in the short- and medium-term impact on aviation business and the management pressure on the continued safety of airport operations, but it does not change the long-term growth trend of aviation business. Due to the effective and effective prevention and control measures of my country's epidemic, China's civil aviation took the lead in the world to bottom out and rebound, becoming the world's fastest-recovering and best-operating aviation market. In 2020, my country's air transport turnover will be more than 78 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year decrease of about 39%.
Figure 3 my country's air traffic changes from January to December 2020 (data source: Civil Aviation Administration, CIRIUM)
Judging from the traffic situation from January to December 2020, the overall recovery of my country's civil aviation market is relatively good, showing a significant "√" type growth. By the end of 2020, it has basically recovered to about 60% to 70% of the same period last year. The month-on-year growth rate of transportation volume gradually decreased, and in September and October, it basically recovered about 90% of the same period last year. The average passenger load factor remained at around 73%, a decrease of about 10 percentage points from the same period last year.
(3) The recovery situation in various regions is uneven
From the perspective of the development of throughput in various regions (or the recovery in various regions), as the effect of my country's epidemic control is more obvious, the recovery of airport passenger throughput is relatively good. Among them, the recovery situation in the southwest region is the best among the seven regions (about 75% of the recovery in the same period), and the northwest region is less affected by the continuous epidemic, so it is second only to the growth rate in the southwest region. The recovery situation in Xinjiang, North China, and Northeast China is still less than 60%, especially the repeated epidemics in Beijing, the continued existence of imported cases in Xinjiang, and the concentrated outbreak of epidemics in Northeast China have slowed the recovery in the above-mentioned areas.
Figure 4 The recovery of passenger throughput in various regions in 2020 (Data source: Civil Aviation Administration, IATA)
Figure 5 The recovery of passenger traffic in each province in 2020 (data source: IATA, CIRIUM)
From the perspective of passenger throughput in various provinces, in 2020, Guangdong Province will have the highest throughput (about 100 million passengers), with a year-on-year growth rate of -35.03%; the throughput of Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan will be about 50 million passengers. The growth rates of Shanghai and Beijing were -49.39% and -53.23% respectively, and the growth rates of the other three provinces were around -25%. Tibet and Qinghai were the two most recovered provinces, with growth rates of -10.36% and- 16.95%.
2. my country's international transportation market
(1) my country's international air transport market is greatly affected by the epidemic
Figure 6 2011-2020 domestic and international passenger traffic (data source: Civil Aviation Administration, CIRIUM)
With the continuous advancement of China's civil aviation's air transportation strategy of "domestic liberalization and international liberalization", China's civil aviation has become closer to the world and has a greater impact on global civil aviation. In this context, since the World Health Organization announced the new coronavirus as a public health emergency (PHEIC) of international concern, more than 70 countries including the United States, Italy, and Australia have announced different levels of entry in order to reduce imported risks. Restrictive measures. 64 airlines around the world, including Delta and British Airways, canceled or partially cancelled flights to China, which caused a rapid decline in my country's international market traffic. In 2020, the international market's traffic volume will be 9.5 million passengers, a year-on-year growth rate of about -87%.
(2) The promulgation of international transportation policies has played a positive role in stabilizing the market
Since the epidemic, China has adopted measures such as "five ones", "one country, one policy", "flight circuit breaker and reward", and first entry point diversion, etc., to build a dense air port joint prevention and control network to maximize containment Imported risks of overseas epidemics; adopt measures such as “passenger-to-cargo” to rapidly improve international air cargo capacity, and support China’s international supply chain to guarantee transportation and supply; actively participate in ICAO’s multilateral cooperation in epidemic prevention and control and resumption of operations, serving the world Civil aviation has joined hands to make contributions to the prevention and control of the epidemic and the recovery and development of the industry. As of 2020, my country has signed bilateral air transport agreements with 128 countries or regions, including 100 countries along the "Belt and Road" route, and maintain regular passenger and freight services with 151 cities in 64 countries.
Figure 7 my country's international market navigation in 2020 (data source: Civil Aviation Administration Work Report, CIRIUM)
3. my country's freight transportation market
(1) The overall development momentum is good
In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the number of international passenger flights has dropped sharply, and the ability to carry cargo in the belly compartment has dropped significantly. To this end, the Civil Aviation Administration has decisively adopted a series of policy measures including encouraging "passenger conversion", opening up "green channels" for domestic and foreign cargo aircraft, and providing government subsidies, and quickly reversed the problem of "no entry or exit". Freight prices have gradually fallen to the normal range, and the air freight market has basically achieved a balance between supply and demand. For the whole year of 2020, the entire industry will complete more than 6.7 million tons of cargo and mail transportation, which has recovered to 89.8% of the same period last year. Among them, the international route completed cargo and mail transportation of 2.23 million tons, which has been restored to 92.2% of the same period last year.
Figure 8 Air cargo traffic statistics from January to December 2020 (data source: IATA, CIRIUM)
(2) Outstanding contributions during the epidemic
Since the epidemic, aviation logistics companies have played a prominent role in "guaranteeing supply and smoothing." First, it has undertaken a large number of epidemic prevention material transportation tasks. The industry will guarantee a total of 9 million flights in 2020, which has recovered to about 78% of the same period last year, providing better support for the transportation of epidemic prevention materials (belly cabins and all-cargo aircraft). The second is to work hard to serve the "resumption of work and production." In addition to anti-epidemic materials, the transportation of import and export materials and raw materials also effectively guarantees the resumption of work and production of my country's import and export production enterprises. At the same time, aviation companies have also used "passenger-to-cargo" methods to relieve the tension of freight capacity on the one hand, and on the other hand, they have also become an important support means to reduce their own operating pressure and quickly restore operating capabilities. Taking China Eastern Airlines as an example, the number of all-cargo planes and "passenger-to-cargo" international cargo flights launched by China Eastern Logistics has reached more than 240 per week. The number of flights in the same period last year has almost doubled, which strongly supports the world. The help of various countries in the prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production of Chinese companies.
Figure 9 Cargo volume share of major airlines in 2020 (Data source: IATA, CIRIUM)
(3) The agglomeration effect gradually appears
As an important carrier for the mutual integration, mutual promotion and mutual improvement of the civil aviation industry and the regional economy, the airport economic zone gathers aviation transportation, high-end manufacturing and modern service industries, relying on aviation hubs and modern integrated transportation systems, and through aviation logistics. Major global logistics consolidators, international large-scale freight forwarding giants and high-end manufacturing companies have formed industrial clusters with their own characteristics, providing high-efficiency, high-quality, and high-value-added products and services.
By the end of 2020, my country has approved a total of 17 national airport economic demonstration zones, including Zhengzhou, Beijing New Airport, Qingdao, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shanghai Hongqiao, and Chengdu. This will help promote the development of the civil aviation industry and optimize my country’s economic development pattern. It is of great significance to deepen opening up and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode. For some inland capital cities and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the construction of airport economic zones has transformed these cities from inland into highlands open to the outside world, promoting many related industries (such as high-tech, pharmaceutical manufacturing, cold chain, etc.) , Which is conducive to exerting comparative advantages, tapping the growth potential of domestic demand, promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, and enhancing the driving role of radiation. It will become an important functional support for "curving overtaking" in inland areas.