How will crude oil prices change?
- Author:Kyrie
- Source:Sunny
- Release Date:2021-04-17
Brent crude oil prices have now returned to $ 60 per barrel, which is the level before the end of the epidemic in 2019. Although the VLSFO prices have not fully returned to previous levels, part of the reason is the impact of the market assessment and VLSFO rating in early 2020, but in general, we returned to the starting point.
After the 3 months ago, oil prices almost half, the huge changes in global oil supply and demand have led to the past 12 months.
OPEC has sharply reduced crude oil production, and the yield loss caused by oil prices (mainly in the United States), these factors have pushed oil prices. At the same time, with the second round of the epidemic and possible third round, the fuel demand has been growing since the second quarter of 2020, although the overall growth rate is slower than most people expected, the demand is still rising. The vaccination program brings higher fuel demand and pushes high oil prices.
The price of ship fuel returns to the epidemic, how can it change in the next year?
This triggered a question: How should we look at the fuel price trend in the next 12 months after recent years in recent years?
Demand and price comparison of different oil products market
In fact, in terms of the impact of the epidemic, the marine fuel market is one of the smallest industries. However, the price of fuel is similar to crude oil, gasoline and diesel. The demand for oil is similar. Any oil market is not independent, so the things happened in other oil products have almost completely determine our payment price. .
It is said that the biggest impact is the need for the demand for aviation fuel due to the outbreak of the epidemic. In 2020, the major markets in the United States, Europe and Asia have fallen by 42% to air fuel demand, 2.6 million barrels / day, compared to marine fuel demand in the same region only dropped only 7%, 300,000 barrels / days, The demand for gasoline and diesel is influenced between the two.
However, when the price changes involved in oil, these relative demand changes are often overlooked, and the price drop in the oil market is very similar, and 2020 fell about 33-37% in 2019.
The price of ship fuel returns to the epidemic, how can it change in the next year?
What happened to global crude oil supply?
In terms of oil supply, there is indication that the crude oil production will increase at least to July. Previously OPECs decided at the meeting on April 1, allowing the stages to increase 1.1 million barrels / days in phases. In addition, Saudi is also relaxing an additional 1 million barrels / days in the same period. Therefore, the crude oil production in the next three months may increase by 2.1 million barrels per day.
OPEC is planning to relax production, but some industry insiders are slightly accidental to this decision. It is more expensive than expected, and people are concerned about the speed of demand.
In terms of supply, there is another potential reason to make oil prices to fall, that is, the United States may reassign an Iranian nuclear agreement. Although it is preliminary, indirect negotiations will be started this month. However, further negotiations are still planned, any signs of reaching agreements and relaxation will lead to pessimism in the market, because Iran crude oil is at least 1 million barrels / day imports.
There is also a risk that this is not just from Iran's increased crude oil or heavy high-sulfur crude oil production, which may have a political impact on Saudi's petroleum policy. From the perspective of crude oil supply, it is indeed an increase in supply, which may constitute downstream pressure on the overall oil prices.
Where is the growth of the demand for crude oil?
Prospects in crude oil demand are mainly concentrated in certain areas, such as China and the United States, and in Europe's demand growth in Europe and the problem of sealing restrictions is small.
After the 3 months ago, oil prices almost half, the huge changes in global oil supply and demand have led to the past 12 months.
OPEC has sharply reduced crude oil production, and the yield loss caused by oil prices (mainly in the United States), these factors have pushed oil prices. At the same time, with the second round of the epidemic and possible third round, the fuel demand has been growing since the second quarter of 2020, although the overall growth rate is slower than most people expected, the demand is still rising. The vaccination program brings higher fuel demand and pushes high oil prices.
The price of ship fuel returns to the epidemic, how can it change in the next year?
This triggered a question: How should we look at the fuel price trend in the next 12 months after recent years in recent years?
Demand and price comparison of different oil products market
In fact, in terms of the impact of the epidemic, the marine fuel market is one of the smallest industries. However, the price of fuel is similar to crude oil, gasoline and diesel. The demand for oil is similar. Any oil market is not independent, so the things happened in other oil products have almost completely determine our payment price. .
It is said that the biggest impact is the need for the demand for aviation fuel due to the outbreak of the epidemic. In 2020, the major markets in the United States, Europe and Asia have fallen by 42% to air fuel demand, 2.6 million barrels / day, compared to marine fuel demand in the same region only dropped only 7%, 300,000 barrels / days, The demand for gasoline and diesel is influenced between the two.
However, when the price changes involved in oil, these relative demand changes are often overlooked, and the price drop in the oil market is very similar, and 2020 fell about 33-37% in 2019.
The price of ship fuel returns to the epidemic, how can it change in the next year?
What happened to global crude oil supply?
In terms of oil supply, there is indication that the crude oil production will increase at least to July. Previously OPECs decided at the meeting on April 1, allowing the stages to increase 1.1 million barrels / days in phases. In addition, Saudi is also relaxing an additional 1 million barrels / days in the same period. Therefore, the crude oil production in the next three months may increase by 2.1 million barrels per day.
OPEC is planning to relax production, but some industry insiders are slightly accidental to this decision. It is more expensive than expected, and people are concerned about the speed of demand.
In terms of supply, there is another potential reason to make oil prices to fall, that is, the United States may reassign an Iranian nuclear agreement. Although it is preliminary, indirect negotiations will be started this month. However, further negotiations are still planned, any signs of reaching agreements and relaxation will lead to pessimism in the market, because Iran crude oil is at least 1 million barrels / day imports.
There is also a risk that this is not just from Iran's increased crude oil or heavy high-sulfur crude oil production, which may have a political impact on Saudi's petroleum policy. From the perspective of crude oil supply, it is indeed an increase in supply, which may constitute downstream pressure on the overall oil prices.
Where is the growth of the demand for crude oil?
Prospects in crude oil demand are mainly concentrated in certain areas, such as China and the United States, and in Europe's demand growth in Europe and the problem of sealing restrictions is small.