Is the termination of the 2M league's termination of operation?
- Author:Elena
- Release Date:2023-02-06
At the beginning of 2023, the top two rounds of the world's two -round company officially announced their "breakup".
On January 25, Matski, a member of the 2M Alliance, and the Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) jointly announced that the two sides agreed to terminate the 2M league operations from January 2025.
In the joint statement, Matsky CEO Vincent Clerc and MSC CEO Soren TOFT said: "The two companies realized that the two companies signed the 10 -year Alliance Agreement in 2015 in 2015In many cases, many situations have changed. The termination of the 2M league operation will pave the way for the two companies to continue to pursue their respective strategic development. "
The official announcement immediately stirred up the stir in the market.
Although there were previous speculations about the change of 2M league students, with the disintegration of the largest alliance in the market, a must -have answer was left in 2023: Does this indicate the disintegration of the league pattern?Where will other liner companies go?
It's not accidental
Since the implementation of ship sharing agreements (VSA) on Asia -Europe, Cross -Pacific, and Cross -Atlantic routes in January 2015, in the 8 years, in the 8 years, it has undergone tremendous changes, especially these two.The development strategy of the large liner giants is quite different, which may be the biggest reason why the 2M separates.
Time back 10 years ago.
The collection market in 2013 is experiencing a period of bleak time: the demand is weak, the capacity increases, and the shipping price is sluggish.More and more companies realize that it is better to fight alone for heating.
Industry giants are no exception.At this time, Maski, MSC and Dafei reached a cooperation and planned to set up an operation alliance called P3.However, due to the high market share, the P3 did not pass the antitrust censorship.So Maski and MSC started the spare plan, and "kicked off" Da Fei, which had disagreed in business philosophy. In the end, the 2M Alliance was officially operated in 2015.
There was a discussion at the time for why Maski chose MSC.
Matsky has always been a good student in the industry, with good service and high standards.MSC is just the opposite. It is known for its low price and has a poor schedule.However, the combination of this pair of nicknamed "Xueba" and "scum" was just complementary at the time.While Master, while stabilizing high -end customers, MSC attracts other cargo owners at a preferential price and increases the full load rate of ships.It can be said that the 2M alliance perfectly meets the market demand at that time.
However, "the world's general trend, the division must be long, and the long time must be divided."Maski and MSC's very different "natural temperament" has laid a foreshadowing for the final "breakup" of both parties, and the market's storms have pushed the two in different directions.
In 2019, Maski opened the curtain of deep cultivation of the supply chain.After peeling the energy business and integrating internal brands, it has a unified management team, sales team, product team, and customer experience service team. The purpose is to provide the owner with a comprehensive and end -to -end logistics solution.The strategic goal of Matsky as a global comprehensive container logistics company has become clearer.
Unlike Masky's choice of landing, MSC accelerates expansion at the sea transportation end.
The scale of its container fleet has increased from 3.8 million TEU in early 2020 to 4.63 million TEUs in early 2023. The capacity increased by more than 20%in three years.In January 2022, MSC's capacity surpassed Masky and appeared on the throne of the world's largest liner company.
In addition, MSC currently has a new ship of up to 1.8 million TEUs, which is 5 times that of Masis's new ship orders.If all these new ships are delivered, MSC's capacity will reach a record 6.4 million TEU, surpassing Matsquier 2 million TEU, and more than the total transportation capacity of Dafei and COSCO Maritime Control.This also means that in the future for a long time, MSC will rank first in the global capacity rankings.
In the case of the reversal of the capacity and the contrary to the business philosophy, if the 2M alliance continues to cooperate, it will be difficult, and the joy of each student may be the best ending.
Each single fly to challenge
After the top two rounds of the world's two -wheel company announced their solo, their respective development prospects and their impact on the market affected the nerves of the industry.
Some people in the industry speculate that MSC first proposes to "break up", because MSC is no longer MSC in 2015, and its role has changed from "follower" to "leader".Judging from the current scale of capacity for a period of time, MSC is fully capable of operating the existing route network of the 2M league.
In addition, the more powerful MSC has its own consideration.
When the owner chooses the liner company, the service is important, but the freight rate is still to a large extent with the balance of the owner's heart, especially for the small and medium -sized cargo owners.The low freight rate in the regular market is the main business philosophy of MSC for a long time.Especially when the centralized market is in the downlink range, the control cost will become an important means of the liner company. This is the specialty of MSC.
In fact, Gianluigi Aponte, the founder of MSC, has always been an league opponent, and he hopes to fully control the fate of the company.In 2015, heating in the group was the most important, and now the alliance has become a constraint.
MSC CEO Sollen Totov also made it clear: "We will continue to strengthen the size of the fleet and provide the most comprehensive ocean and short -distance shipping networks in the market." It can be seen that MSC will return to our habit of playing.
According to the industry consulting agency, De Lu analyzed that in order to fill the cabin, MSC may return to the old development model, that is, to seize market share through low freight rates, which may destroy market stability.
Roger, an expert in the shipping market, also believes: "Normal shipping industry is a micro -profit market, and cost control is the key, and a major factor affecting the cost is the full boat rate. It can be imagined that the traditional player of MSC will continue to carry forward, that is, regardless of everythingThe price is guaranteed to be full of ships, and MSC may become the weathervane of the market for the market. "
In contrast, Single's challenges to Masky are even greater.
The first to the brunt is whether Masky's current capacity of 4.2 million TEU can maintain the existing route network.In this regard, Maski publicly responded that in the future, it will continue to actively participate in ship sharing agreements, including existing agreements and more targeted agreements in the future.
Johan Sigsgaard, chief product officer of Masisky Maritime Transport Business, explained: "Our focus is to combine the sea transportation network with the land network.Independent service network to realize customer requirements. "
He further emphasized: "We have no intention of setting up a new large alliance that will not have comprehensive cooperation with other traversal companies, but there will be more specific cooperation."
In this regard, Roger believes that the possibility of joining other alliances with Maski is not very likely to join other alliances, and there is too little capacity for alone.The fastest way to maintain the operating network is to cooperate with other trains or alliances through ship sharing agreements.
He analyzed: "At present, Maski has more than 40 ships sharing agreements with other line remarks companies. In the case of no significant increase in overall capacity, Maski will put their own capacity on the main route, while other routes sharing through ships through ships sharing through ships.As a supplement. It is foreseeable that the cooperation between Masky and other liner companies and other alliances will increase. "
Alliance pattern or change
Another focus that the industry is concerned is that, just like the establishment of the 2M league has led the tide of the league, the end of the 2M alliance also indicates that the disintegration of the setting market alliance and the reshaping of market competition?
In addition to the 2M Alliance, the other two major alliances on the market are Ocean Alliance composed of COSCO Maritime, Dafei, and Evergreen Shipping and The THE consistingThe Alliance.The cooperation period of the Ocean Union is 2027, and the Alliance is 2030.
Regarding the cooperation of the alliance, the member of the Alliance, Herbelot, stated that the 2M behavior will not have any impact on the cooperation with other traverscale companies in the Alliance in The Alliance.
"Herbelot is one of the founding members of the Alliance. The new year's new year's route upgrade plan will take effect in April 2023. Herberto is fully committed to the future development of the league to benefit our customers."Herberton said so.
However, Lars Jensen, CEO of the industry consulting company Vespucci Maritime, believes: "The termination of the operation of the 2M league should be regarded as the first Domino card. In the next 1-2 years, more cards will fall down."
Alan Murphy, chief executive officer of Sea-Intelligence, reminded: "It must be remembered that the alliance is the result of large-scale excess capacity. When the market is good, the alliance will face pressure because the trains will be restricted and cannot make decisions by themselves.In my opinion, the industry is repeating the mistakes of 2015-2016, and there will be serious confession. This will be a few years, so other alliances will be very cautious when making any major changes. "
A trend worthy of attention is that in the context of market changes, cross -league cooperation between lineup companies may increase.
In January 2023, the members of the Alliance Herbelot and the member of the Ocean Union Dafei began to share the cabin on the Fal3 route from Dafei Asia to Nordic, aiming to "strengthen the wiring coverage."
Da Fei and another The members of the Alliance One have also submitted a revision of the Cross -Pacific Airlines Curdier Exchange Amendment recently. The cabin exchange was exchanged between the Pearl River Express operated by Dafei and the FP1 ring line operated by ONE.
At the same time, the form of the alliance may also change.
Li Zhenfu, a professor at Dalian Maritime University, analyzed: "Whether the liner company is related to the market development trend. The biggest advantage of the alliance is to realize resource sharing and maximize the interests of the company. When the market situation is not good, the advantages of the alliance are the most obvious. Once the market is transferred, the market turns.Well, the company will have a bigger earnings for their own war. "
He believes that the league trend of the transport industry will not change, but the form of the alliance will change according to market conditions.After the 2M Alliance terminates the operation, it is possible to accelerate the disintegration of the alliance between the liner companies. At the same time, there may be alliances composed of other shipping elements such as port companies, ports, and financial institutions, that is, to form a large league.
In addition, on the impact of changes in the market pattern on freight rate trends, De Lu believes that changes in the alliance will lead to a fierce price war to attract cargo owners to choose new services.
Cai Jiaxiang, vice chairman of the China Foreign Trade Economic Cooperation Enterprise Association, also holds a similar point of view. He said: "Under the circumstances where the current demand is reduced, the termination of operations of the 2M league may have a chain response, affecting the cooperation of other alliances, and further affecting the shipping price trend.The strange phenomenon of the zero shipping price of the near -ocean or dozens of dollars per marked box of ocean routes may be reproduced. "
Cai Jiaxiang also said that because the shipping industry's alliance organization has always enjoyed the protection of the competition law and has certain advantages in terms of pricing power, from the perspective of the protagonist of the cargo, it does not want the shipping industry to have the alliance pattern.
The market for 2023 has ushered in a new round of storm transformation. Different choices of the liner company will determine the future market pattern and their respective roles.
On January 25, Matski, a member of the 2M Alliance, and the Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) jointly announced that the two sides agreed to terminate the 2M league operations from January 2025.
In the joint statement, Matsky CEO Vincent Clerc and MSC CEO Soren TOFT said: "The two companies realized that the two companies signed the 10 -year Alliance Agreement in 2015 in 2015In many cases, many situations have changed. The termination of the 2M league operation will pave the way for the two companies to continue to pursue their respective strategic development. "
The official announcement immediately stirred up the stir in the market.
Although there were previous speculations about the change of 2M league students, with the disintegration of the largest alliance in the market, a must -have answer was left in 2023: Does this indicate the disintegration of the league pattern?Where will other liner companies go?
It's not accidental
Since the implementation of ship sharing agreements (VSA) on Asia -Europe, Cross -Pacific, and Cross -Atlantic routes in January 2015, in the 8 years, in the 8 years, it has undergone tremendous changes, especially these two.The development strategy of the large liner giants is quite different, which may be the biggest reason why the 2M separates.
Time back 10 years ago.
The collection market in 2013 is experiencing a period of bleak time: the demand is weak, the capacity increases, and the shipping price is sluggish.More and more companies realize that it is better to fight alone for heating.
Industry giants are no exception.At this time, Maski, MSC and Dafei reached a cooperation and planned to set up an operation alliance called P3.However, due to the high market share, the P3 did not pass the antitrust censorship.So Maski and MSC started the spare plan, and "kicked off" Da Fei, which had disagreed in business philosophy. In the end, the 2M Alliance was officially operated in 2015.
There was a discussion at the time for why Maski chose MSC.
Matsky has always been a good student in the industry, with good service and high standards.MSC is just the opposite. It is known for its low price and has a poor schedule.However, the combination of this pair of nicknamed "Xueba" and "scum" was just complementary at the time.While Master, while stabilizing high -end customers, MSC attracts other cargo owners at a preferential price and increases the full load rate of ships.It can be said that the 2M alliance perfectly meets the market demand at that time.
However, "the world's general trend, the division must be long, and the long time must be divided."Maski and MSC's very different "natural temperament" has laid a foreshadowing for the final "breakup" of both parties, and the market's storms have pushed the two in different directions.
In 2019, Maski opened the curtain of deep cultivation of the supply chain.After peeling the energy business and integrating internal brands, it has a unified management team, sales team, product team, and customer experience service team. The purpose is to provide the owner with a comprehensive and end -to -end logistics solution.The strategic goal of Matsky as a global comprehensive container logistics company has become clearer.
Unlike Masky's choice of landing, MSC accelerates expansion at the sea transportation end.
The scale of its container fleet has increased from 3.8 million TEU in early 2020 to 4.63 million TEUs in early 2023. The capacity increased by more than 20%in three years.In January 2022, MSC's capacity surpassed Masky and appeared on the throne of the world's largest liner company.
In addition, MSC currently has a new ship of up to 1.8 million TEUs, which is 5 times that of Masis's new ship orders.If all these new ships are delivered, MSC's capacity will reach a record 6.4 million TEU, surpassing Matsquier 2 million TEU, and more than the total transportation capacity of Dafei and COSCO Maritime Control.This also means that in the future for a long time, MSC will rank first in the global capacity rankings.
In the case of the reversal of the capacity and the contrary to the business philosophy, if the 2M alliance continues to cooperate, it will be difficult, and the joy of each student may be the best ending.
Each single fly to challenge
After the top two rounds of the world's two -wheel company announced their solo, their respective development prospects and their impact on the market affected the nerves of the industry.
Some people in the industry speculate that MSC first proposes to "break up", because MSC is no longer MSC in 2015, and its role has changed from "follower" to "leader".Judging from the current scale of capacity for a period of time, MSC is fully capable of operating the existing route network of the 2M league.
In addition, the more powerful MSC has its own consideration.
When the owner chooses the liner company, the service is important, but the freight rate is still to a large extent with the balance of the owner's heart, especially for the small and medium -sized cargo owners.The low freight rate in the regular market is the main business philosophy of MSC for a long time.Especially when the centralized market is in the downlink range, the control cost will become an important means of the liner company. This is the specialty of MSC.
In fact, Gianluigi Aponte, the founder of MSC, has always been an league opponent, and he hopes to fully control the fate of the company.In 2015, heating in the group was the most important, and now the alliance has become a constraint.
MSC CEO Sollen Totov also made it clear: "We will continue to strengthen the size of the fleet and provide the most comprehensive ocean and short -distance shipping networks in the market." It can be seen that MSC will return to our habit of playing.
According to the industry consulting agency, De Lu analyzed that in order to fill the cabin, MSC may return to the old development model, that is, to seize market share through low freight rates, which may destroy market stability.
Roger, an expert in the shipping market, also believes: "Normal shipping industry is a micro -profit market, and cost control is the key, and a major factor affecting the cost is the full boat rate. It can be imagined that the traditional player of MSC will continue to carry forward, that is, regardless of everythingThe price is guaranteed to be full of ships, and MSC may become the weathervane of the market for the market. "
In contrast, Single's challenges to Masky are even greater.
The first to the brunt is whether Masky's current capacity of 4.2 million TEU can maintain the existing route network.In this regard, Maski publicly responded that in the future, it will continue to actively participate in ship sharing agreements, including existing agreements and more targeted agreements in the future.
Johan Sigsgaard, chief product officer of Masisky Maritime Transport Business, explained: "Our focus is to combine the sea transportation network with the land network.Independent service network to realize customer requirements. "
He further emphasized: "We have no intention of setting up a new large alliance that will not have comprehensive cooperation with other traversal companies, but there will be more specific cooperation."
In this regard, Roger believes that the possibility of joining other alliances with Maski is not very likely to join other alliances, and there is too little capacity for alone.The fastest way to maintain the operating network is to cooperate with other trains or alliances through ship sharing agreements.
He analyzed: "At present, Maski has more than 40 ships sharing agreements with other line remarks companies. In the case of no significant increase in overall capacity, Maski will put their own capacity on the main route, while other routes sharing through ships through ships sharing through ships.As a supplement. It is foreseeable that the cooperation between Masky and other liner companies and other alliances will increase. "
Alliance pattern or change
Another focus that the industry is concerned is that, just like the establishment of the 2M league has led the tide of the league, the end of the 2M alliance also indicates that the disintegration of the setting market alliance and the reshaping of market competition?
In addition to the 2M Alliance, the other two major alliances on the market are Ocean Alliance composed of COSCO Maritime, Dafei, and Evergreen Shipping and The THE consistingThe Alliance.The cooperation period of the Ocean Union is 2027, and the Alliance is 2030.
Regarding the cooperation of the alliance, the member of the Alliance, Herbelot, stated that the 2M behavior will not have any impact on the cooperation with other traverscale companies in the Alliance in The Alliance.
"Herbelot is one of the founding members of the Alliance. The new year's new year's route upgrade plan will take effect in April 2023. Herberto is fully committed to the future development of the league to benefit our customers."Herberton said so.
However, Lars Jensen, CEO of the industry consulting company Vespucci Maritime, believes: "The termination of the operation of the 2M league should be regarded as the first Domino card. In the next 1-2 years, more cards will fall down."
Alan Murphy, chief executive officer of Sea-Intelligence, reminded: "It must be remembered that the alliance is the result of large-scale excess capacity. When the market is good, the alliance will face pressure because the trains will be restricted and cannot make decisions by themselves.In my opinion, the industry is repeating the mistakes of 2015-2016, and there will be serious confession. This will be a few years, so other alliances will be very cautious when making any major changes. "
A trend worthy of attention is that in the context of market changes, cross -league cooperation between lineup companies may increase.
In January 2023, the members of the Alliance Herbelot and the member of the Ocean Union Dafei began to share the cabin on the Fal3 route from Dafei Asia to Nordic, aiming to "strengthen the wiring coverage."
Da Fei and another The members of the Alliance One have also submitted a revision of the Cross -Pacific Airlines Curdier Exchange Amendment recently. The cabin exchange was exchanged between the Pearl River Express operated by Dafei and the FP1 ring line operated by ONE.
At the same time, the form of the alliance may also change.
Li Zhenfu, a professor at Dalian Maritime University, analyzed: "Whether the liner company is related to the market development trend. The biggest advantage of the alliance is to realize resource sharing and maximize the interests of the company. When the market situation is not good, the advantages of the alliance are the most obvious. Once the market is transferred, the market turns.Well, the company will have a bigger earnings for their own war. "
He believes that the league trend of the transport industry will not change, but the form of the alliance will change according to market conditions.After the 2M Alliance terminates the operation, it is possible to accelerate the disintegration of the alliance between the liner companies. At the same time, there may be alliances composed of other shipping elements such as port companies, ports, and financial institutions, that is, to form a large league.
In addition, on the impact of changes in the market pattern on freight rate trends, De Lu believes that changes in the alliance will lead to a fierce price war to attract cargo owners to choose new services.
Cai Jiaxiang, vice chairman of the China Foreign Trade Economic Cooperation Enterprise Association, also holds a similar point of view. He said: "Under the circumstances where the current demand is reduced, the termination of operations of the 2M league may have a chain response, affecting the cooperation of other alliances, and further affecting the shipping price trend.The strange phenomenon of the zero shipping price of the near -ocean or dozens of dollars per marked box of ocean routes may be reproduced. "
Cai Jiaxiang also said that because the shipping industry's alliance organization has always enjoyed the protection of the competition law and has certain advantages in terms of pricing power, from the perspective of the protagonist of the cargo, it does not want the shipping industry to have the alliance pattern.
The market for 2023 has ushered in a new round of storm transformation. Different choices of the liner company will determine the future market pattern and their respective roles.