Retreat!Delivery!The container shipping market is turbulent
- Author:Elena
- Release Date:2023-01-03
After experiencing the super prosperous era that has soared in the past two years, in 2023, the global container shipping market may usher in a very different situation. With the sharp shrinking and rapid growth of market demand, the freight and rent have continued to fall sharply., Signing the chief contract, subtracting the class, retreating and delivery of the ship in advance will begin.
The cumulative plunge of freight rates has plummeted by 77%.
The World Container Freight Index (WCI) compiled by the shipping consulting agency Dream (WCI) shows that as of December 30, 2022, the current freight price of container ships has plummeted by 77%, and it may further fall, indicating that the centralized company's shipping company’s shipping companyCreating a record ended.
Deluli estimates that unless there is an extension of delivery, this year's global new capacity will reach about 2.5 million TEUs, a record of the highest history.At the same time, collecting companies have to cope with the economic recession caused by the US inflation, multiple interest rate hikes, and the European energy crisis. The two challenges of global trade and the surge in ship supply have come at the same time.
Barclays analyst Alexia Doagani believes that the transportation price must be stable until the global economic improvement, the end of the current destocking cycle, and the return of consumer behavior to the normal state.Prior to this, collecting companies still have to work hard to negotiate with customers to maintain long -term value.The favorable factors on the concentration company include the impact of the restart in mainland China, and the geopolitical development of the Russian and Uchians may further disturb the market.
However, the negotiations between the centralized company and customers may be very difficult. As the spot freight price decreases, the prevalence of contract prices will also decrease.CETAINER CEO CHRISTIAN Roeloffs, CEO of container logistics online platform, believes that this year's freight forwarding companies will still maintain watching, especially at the beginning of this year.
Regarding the prospects of the Asian and Chinese markets, some institutions believe that the market is striving to seek the diversified development of supply chain procurement and manufacturing outside China; this is a long -term process that requires enterprises to formulate strategies to seek more flexible elasticitysupply chain.It is expected that the market volume of the interval in Asia will continue to grow, and Vietnam, India and other countries will become a potential substitute for China's manufacturing industry.
Sea-Intelligence warned: "The collection company currently has a large amount of cash and is rich in profits, which may fall into a new round of price war."
Re -sign the chief contract, reduce the class and reduce the cabin, return the ship in advance, delay the delivery
At present, the negotiations of the European Line New Test Treaty, which was scheduled to take effect in January, still stalemate.Industry insiders have revealed that a number of shipping companies have a quotation of a new long contract of $ 2,000 in this year, mainly because they are expected to recover the demand in the second half of the year;Both of the goods want to bet, and the marathon negotiation may be dragged until the Spring Festival.
Last year, most of the European lines ranged from about $ 6000-9000, but in the fourth quarter, the spot freight rates plummeted, and the long-term price had been adjusted.If the price is about $ 2,000 this year, it is equivalent to folding or one -third, but it is still better than the outbreak of the epidemic.Therefore, the marketing company has the pressure to boost the spot price, first keep the European line price, and then talk about the U.S. line long contract starting in May after the Spring Festival. For the Asian collection company, the US line is about a higher proportion.The impact will be greater.
In order to stabilize the freight rate, the collecting company is continuously tightening the compartment. It is estimated that the current reduction rate of the ship has exceeded 30%. After the Spring Festival, the reduction rate may be pulled to 50%of the Container Xchange in the recent report that the shipping price of the collection of transportation in 2022 has fallen sharply.It will continue to fall in 2023, and due to the serious confession of the market, collecting companies can only continue to reduce capacity, suspend voyage, and market facing huge fluctuations.
At the same time, after the shipping price plummeted, the shipowner who rented the ship also began to evaluate the payment of the contract to return the ship in advance, and the container shipping industry began to emerge.The latest data shows that some renters and owners who entered the market at the market in the past two years are retreating a large number of container ships that have been rented at high prices before. This retreat is the first to see the epidemic.
Some people in the industry said that the market has reported that there are ship rental plans for shipping and Wanhai.In the past two years, the epidemic has caused a freight boom. Many operators rent a boat at high prices. As the freight and rent have both plummeted, more operators may return to the ship in advance, and it will also accelerate the ship's exit of the market.
In addition, during the epidemic period, due to the surge in consumer expenditure, coupled with important nodes such as ports and railway supply chains, it caused delay in transportation of goods and shortage of product supply. American importers were scrambled to switch to bags to ensure the supply of goods.Nowadays, seeing the crash of sea transportation and sufficient container cabin, including Costco WHOLESALE, Home DEPOT and PARTY CITY, have withdrawn from the charter business.
Some shipowners said that they were not optimistic about the output of the container shipping in 2023, but under the double decline of rent and charter costs, it was predicted that the increase in the number of returns will increase next year, and global capacity will continue to decrease.The industry believes that this will usher in a new opportunity for the shipping power industry to reorganize, and it will have a positive blessing effect on freight rates.
Another shipping consulting agency SEA-Intelligence pointed out that although the collector company is vigorously cutting capacity, due to the too much capacity invested in the early stage, compared with the same period before the epidemic, the market capacity will be greatly surplus during the Spring Festival in 2023.Among them, the transportation power of Asia-American West routes increased by 37.8%over the same period in 2019, and the average capacity level of 2016-2019 increased by 35.8%.The transportation power of Asia-Eastern routes is as high as 57%to 59%, and the transportation power of Asia-Nordic routes is 28%to 42%. Only the transportation power of the Asian-Mediterranean route is close to the pre-epidemic level.
Alphaliner said that container shipping companies are already negotiating with shipyards to postpone the delivery time of some large ships from the end of 2022 to 2023.It is reported that there are many large container ships at the current Mediterranean Shipping in China. It is expected that the company will delay the delivery time of more large container ships to 2023.
Alphalner estimates that the capacity of container ships will increase by 8.2%this year, with a demand of about 2.7%.At present, there are more than 5,600 container ships in the world and 25.9 million TEU capacity. This year, it will increase by 2.4 million TEUs. In 2024, it will increase by 2.8 million TEUs, an increase of 8.5%.
The global shipping industry is facing the risk of economic downturn
The UNCTAD report states that the slowdown of global trade growth may last until 2023 due to factors such as war, epidemic, and economic turmoil.
In addition, large global investment banks pointed out that one year after the Russian and Ukrainian war and inflation and inflation, global economic growth will further slow down in 2023, and it will affect shipping.It will be reduced accordingly.
According to the "2022 Sea Transport Review" report released by UnCTAD, it is expected that the global shipping growth rate will slow to 1.4%this year, and this level will be maintained in 2023.The global shipping trade grew 3.2%in 2021, with a total transportation volume of 11 billion tons, a decrease of 3.8%in 2020.It is expected that the average annual growth rate of 2023 to 2027 is 2.1%, a significant decrease from the average growth rate of 3.3%before the previous 30 years.
The report also pointed out that the Russian and Ukraine War, the continuous spread of the new crown epidemic, the pressure of supply chain, the economic cooling and the new crown zero policy of mainland China, and the pressure of severe inflation and living costs worldwide.The recovery of sea transport is facing huge risks.
UnCTAD calls for investing in the shipping supply chain, so that the connection between ports, fleets and hinterland can be prepared to make more preparations in response to future global crises, climate change and low -carbon energy transformation.
Data show that the amount of goods from the Far East to Europe in the first 10 months of last year was about 8%, and it was about 4%less in the United States.For the shipping company, in the face of such economic conditions, if the Russian and Ukraine War can end earlier, European countries have the ability to buy more goods.It can be benefited from transport or container ships, but everything is unexpected.
Some experts pointed out that the shipping company may face more turbulent storms this year. Although a ship company can still use ground political uncertainty to obtain a bargaining chip with customers, the most prosperous period in the market has undoubtedly ended.
The cumulative plunge of freight rates has plummeted by 77%.
The World Container Freight Index (WCI) compiled by the shipping consulting agency Dream (WCI) shows that as of December 30, 2022, the current freight price of container ships has plummeted by 77%, and it may further fall, indicating that the centralized company's shipping company’s shipping companyCreating a record ended.
Deluli estimates that unless there is an extension of delivery, this year's global new capacity will reach about 2.5 million TEUs, a record of the highest history.At the same time, collecting companies have to cope with the economic recession caused by the US inflation, multiple interest rate hikes, and the European energy crisis. The two challenges of global trade and the surge in ship supply have come at the same time.
Barclays analyst Alexia Doagani believes that the transportation price must be stable until the global economic improvement, the end of the current destocking cycle, and the return of consumer behavior to the normal state.Prior to this, collecting companies still have to work hard to negotiate with customers to maintain long -term value.The favorable factors on the concentration company include the impact of the restart in mainland China, and the geopolitical development of the Russian and Uchians may further disturb the market.
However, the negotiations between the centralized company and customers may be very difficult. As the spot freight price decreases, the prevalence of contract prices will also decrease.CETAINER CEO CHRISTIAN Roeloffs, CEO of container logistics online platform, believes that this year's freight forwarding companies will still maintain watching, especially at the beginning of this year.
Regarding the prospects of the Asian and Chinese markets, some institutions believe that the market is striving to seek the diversified development of supply chain procurement and manufacturing outside China; this is a long -term process that requires enterprises to formulate strategies to seek more flexible elasticitysupply chain.It is expected that the market volume of the interval in Asia will continue to grow, and Vietnam, India and other countries will become a potential substitute for China's manufacturing industry.
Sea-Intelligence warned: "The collection company currently has a large amount of cash and is rich in profits, which may fall into a new round of price war."
Re -sign the chief contract, reduce the class and reduce the cabin, return the ship in advance, delay the delivery
At present, the negotiations of the European Line New Test Treaty, which was scheduled to take effect in January, still stalemate.Industry insiders have revealed that a number of shipping companies have a quotation of a new long contract of $ 2,000 in this year, mainly because they are expected to recover the demand in the second half of the year;Both of the goods want to bet, and the marathon negotiation may be dragged until the Spring Festival.
Last year, most of the European lines ranged from about $ 6000-9000, but in the fourth quarter, the spot freight rates plummeted, and the long-term price had been adjusted.If the price is about $ 2,000 this year, it is equivalent to folding or one -third, but it is still better than the outbreak of the epidemic.Therefore, the marketing company has the pressure to boost the spot price, first keep the European line price, and then talk about the U.S. line long contract starting in May after the Spring Festival. For the Asian collection company, the US line is about a higher proportion.The impact will be greater.
In order to stabilize the freight rate, the collecting company is continuously tightening the compartment. It is estimated that the current reduction rate of the ship has exceeded 30%. After the Spring Festival, the reduction rate may be pulled to 50%of the Container Xchange in the recent report that the shipping price of the collection of transportation in 2022 has fallen sharply.It will continue to fall in 2023, and due to the serious confession of the market, collecting companies can only continue to reduce capacity, suspend voyage, and market facing huge fluctuations.
At the same time, after the shipping price plummeted, the shipowner who rented the ship also began to evaluate the payment of the contract to return the ship in advance, and the container shipping industry began to emerge.The latest data shows that some renters and owners who entered the market at the market in the past two years are retreating a large number of container ships that have been rented at high prices before. This retreat is the first to see the epidemic.
Some people in the industry said that the market has reported that there are ship rental plans for shipping and Wanhai.In the past two years, the epidemic has caused a freight boom. Many operators rent a boat at high prices. As the freight and rent have both plummeted, more operators may return to the ship in advance, and it will also accelerate the ship's exit of the market.
In addition, during the epidemic period, due to the surge in consumer expenditure, coupled with important nodes such as ports and railway supply chains, it caused delay in transportation of goods and shortage of product supply. American importers were scrambled to switch to bags to ensure the supply of goods.Nowadays, seeing the crash of sea transportation and sufficient container cabin, including Costco WHOLESALE, Home DEPOT and PARTY CITY, have withdrawn from the charter business.
Some shipowners said that they were not optimistic about the output of the container shipping in 2023, but under the double decline of rent and charter costs, it was predicted that the increase in the number of returns will increase next year, and global capacity will continue to decrease.The industry believes that this will usher in a new opportunity for the shipping power industry to reorganize, and it will have a positive blessing effect on freight rates.
Another shipping consulting agency SEA-Intelligence pointed out that although the collector company is vigorously cutting capacity, due to the too much capacity invested in the early stage, compared with the same period before the epidemic, the market capacity will be greatly surplus during the Spring Festival in 2023.Among them, the transportation power of Asia-American West routes increased by 37.8%over the same period in 2019, and the average capacity level of 2016-2019 increased by 35.8%.The transportation power of Asia-Eastern routes is as high as 57%to 59%, and the transportation power of Asia-Nordic routes is 28%to 42%. Only the transportation power of the Asian-Mediterranean route is close to the pre-epidemic level.
Alphaliner said that container shipping companies are already negotiating with shipyards to postpone the delivery time of some large ships from the end of 2022 to 2023.It is reported that there are many large container ships at the current Mediterranean Shipping in China. It is expected that the company will delay the delivery time of more large container ships to 2023.
Alphalner estimates that the capacity of container ships will increase by 8.2%this year, with a demand of about 2.7%.At present, there are more than 5,600 container ships in the world and 25.9 million TEU capacity. This year, it will increase by 2.4 million TEUs. In 2024, it will increase by 2.8 million TEUs, an increase of 8.5%.
The global shipping industry is facing the risk of economic downturn
The UNCTAD report states that the slowdown of global trade growth may last until 2023 due to factors such as war, epidemic, and economic turmoil.
In addition, large global investment banks pointed out that one year after the Russian and Ukrainian war and inflation and inflation, global economic growth will further slow down in 2023, and it will affect shipping.It will be reduced accordingly.
According to the "2022 Sea Transport Review" report released by UnCTAD, it is expected that the global shipping growth rate will slow to 1.4%this year, and this level will be maintained in 2023.The global shipping trade grew 3.2%in 2021, with a total transportation volume of 11 billion tons, a decrease of 3.8%in 2020.It is expected that the average annual growth rate of 2023 to 2027 is 2.1%, a significant decrease from the average growth rate of 3.3%before the previous 30 years.
The report also pointed out that the Russian and Ukraine War, the continuous spread of the new crown epidemic, the pressure of supply chain, the economic cooling and the new crown zero policy of mainland China, and the pressure of severe inflation and living costs worldwide.The recovery of sea transport is facing huge risks.
UnCTAD calls for investing in the shipping supply chain, so that the connection between ports, fleets and hinterland can be prepared to make more preparations in response to future global crises, climate change and low -carbon energy transformation.
Data show that the amount of goods from the Far East to Europe in the first 10 months of last year was about 8%, and it was about 4%less in the United States.For the shipping company, in the face of such economic conditions, if the Russian and Ukraine War can end earlier, European countries have the ability to buy more goods.It can be benefited from transport or container ships, but everything is unexpected.
Some experts pointed out that the shipping company may face more turbulent storms this year. Although a ship company can still use ground political uncertainty to obtain a bargaining chip with customers, the most prosperous period in the market has undoubtedly ended.