Russian media: China's position in the global crisis is irreplaceable
- Author:Josie
- Source:Souair
- Release Date:2020-09-10
China seems to have done it again: out of a new round of world crisis, and, in the sense that its role in the global economy has risen, become stronger than before. As pointed out by the US "New York Times", China accounted for 12.8% of world exports in 2018, 13.1% in 2019, and now 20%. This is the data from April to June. There is also updated August tracking data. This summer, China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers index both showed a positive trend, with the former setting a new high since the beginning of 2011. And 2011 is the year when China became the world leader (together with the United States to become the world's top two economies) after the 2008 financial crisis. At first, people thought that this crisis would cause the entire global economy to collapse, triggering famine and other disasters.
On the one hand, the reasons for industrial prosperity are well understood. China entered the anti-epidemic quarantine period and shut down production departments at the earliest, and took the lead to get out of this state when other countries were still struggling in the blockade. As a result, Chinese products began to fill a huge gap in consumer demand around the world. This resulted in an incredible export share of 20%. Of course, this indicator is difficult to maintain for a long time-such a rapid expansion is very rare in the market.
Russian media: China's position in the global crisis is irreplaceable
▲The 2020 China International Trade in Services Fair will be held in Beijing from September 4th to 9th. The public health and epidemic prevention zone in the comprehensive exhibition area has attracted much attention.
On the other hand, the current situation is also puzzling. Because all this happened when the rival United States launched a fierce attack on China's production and world export share. The above-mentioned "New York Times" article also explored the reason in a panic-the United States has been serious about eliminating China's global advantages over the past period of time, and why it has an unexpected ending in the summer. Today, the United States imposes an unprecedentedly high tariff of 25% on some goods imported from China. You know, the United States is still China's main economic partner, and a large part of the latter's exports are sold there. In addition, the private companies of the United States and its allies have been strongly pressured with only one purpose: to end China's status as a major manufacturing country in the world. Foreign-invested export factories in this country should be closed, and the industrial chain (including jobs) should be returned to the United States or transferred to any other country. As for the reasons for defending this behavior-it doesn't matter: the list of accusations is very long, these accusations You don't even need to be close to the truth.
Irreplaceable status
The real situation is this (the New York Times also described this): First of all, China's global industries rely on efficient and convenient short logistics chains. The country has all the readily available factors that are conducive to production. Even if its Asian neighbors have cheaper labor, they lack such advantages. This does not mention the quality of work: the cultural and educational quality of Chinese workers is good. The result of this is that Chinese products, especially those with complex craftsmanship, can always win the competition with American products, even if they are heavily taxed. This situation is estimated to last for 20 to 30 years.
There is a second point. Even if companies really want to please Washington, adjust the industrial chain, and return jobs, most of them now do not have the funds and willingness to take risks: due to isolation, they can barely maintain the status quo.
This raises a question-what will happen next. In 2020, other countries will be worse off than China. Economists’ forecasts are even expected to come true-in the case of recessions in all other countries, China’s economy will grow at zero or positive. So, what will happen next?
It is hard to contain China
The answer to this question will constitute the main content of international policy in the foreseeable future. At present, the world is divided into countries that are more or less willing to submit to the frantic pressure of the United States to "decouple from China" (they are few) and other countries that refuse to talk about this topic. The former is more interesting because local policies and ideologies are everywhere contrary to economic reality.
For example, the small country of the Philippines, what happened there is intriguing. The foreign minister Teodoro Lochin said that he can follow the United States to impose sanctions on Chinese companies that build artificial islands in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Philippine President Duterte responded that there will be no sanctions because these companies have participated in infrastructure projects in the country, including Sanlai Airport. Unlike other countries in the region, the Filipino people have a greater preference for the United States than for China.
Another example is India, a big country, which seems to be the main victim of the epidemic, and its economy has experienced an unprecedented decline of nearly 24% in the second quarter. Under the leadership of the current government, India has repeatedly clashed with China and built the closest relationship in history with the United States. But in the end, the United States cannot provide India with answers to all questions, whether economically or militarily. With the economic collapse of the two countries and the internal division of the United States, everything has become worse.
These are just two examples of the complexity of the world of tomorrow. In this world, it is not easy to deprive China of the fruits of another victory.
On the one hand, the reasons for industrial prosperity are well understood. China entered the anti-epidemic quarantine period and shut down production departments at the earliest, and took the lead to get out of this state when other countries were still struggling in the blockade. As a result, Chinese products began to fill a huge gap in consumer demand around the world. This resulted in an incredible export share of 20%. Of course, this indicator is difficult to maintain for a long time-such a rapid expansion is very rare in the market.
Russian media: China's position in the global crisis is irreplaceable
▲The 2020 China International Trade in Services Fair will be held in Beijing from September 4th to 9th. The public health and epidemic prevention zone in the comprehensive exhibition area has attracted much attention.
On the other hand, the current situation is also puzzling. Because all this happened when the rival United States launched a fierce attack on China's production and world export share. The above-mentioned "New York Times" article also explored the reason in a panic-the United States has been serious about eliminating China's global advantages over the past period of time, and why it has an unexpected ending in the summer. Today, the United States imposes an unprecedentedly high tariff of 25% on some goods imported from China. You know, the United States is still China's main economic partner, and a large part of the latter's exports are sold there. In addition, the private companies of the United States and its allies have been strongly pressured with only one purpose: to end China's status as a major manufacturing country in the world. Foreign-invested export factories in this country should be closed, and the industrial chain (including jobs) should be returned to the United States or transferred to any other country. As for the reasons for defending this behavior-it doesn't matter: the list of accusations is very long, these accusations You don't even need to be close to the truth.
Irreplaceable status
The real situation is this (the New York Times also described this): First of all, China's global industries rely on efficient and convenient short logistics chains. The country has all the readily available factors that are conducive to production. Even if its Asian neighbors have cheaper labor, they lack such advantages. This does not mention the quality of work: the cultural and educational quality of Chinese workers is good. The result of this is that Chinese products, especially those with complex craftsmanship, can always win the competition with American products, even if they are heavily taxed. This situation is estimated to last for 20 to 30 years.
There is a second point. Even if companies really want to please Washington, adjust the industrial chain, and return jobs, most of them now do not have the funds and willingness to take risks: due to isolation, they can barely maintain the status quo.
This raises a question-what will happen next. In 2020, other countries will be worse off than China. Economists’ forecasts are even expected to come true-in the case of recessions in all other countries, China’s economy will grow at zero or positive. So, what will happen next?
It is hard to contain China
The answer to this question will constitute the main content of international policy in the foreseeable future. At present, the world is divided into countries that are more or less willing to submit to the frantic pressure of the United States to "decouple from China" (they are few) and other countries that refuse to talk about this topic. The former is more interesting because local policies and ideologies are everywhere contrary to economic reality.
For example, the small country of the Philippines, what happened there is intriguing. The foreign minister Teodoro Lochin said that he can follow the United States to impose sanctions on Chinese companies that build artificial islands in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Philippine President Duterte responded that there will be no sanctions because these companies have participated in infrastructure projects in the country, including Sanlai Airport. Unlike other countries in the region, the Filipino people have a greater preference for the United States than for China.
Another example is India, a big country, which seems to be the main victim of the epidemic, and its economy has experienced an unprecedented decline of nearly 24% in the second quarter. Under the leadership of the current government, India has repeatedly clashed with China and built the closest relationship in history with the United States. But in the end, the United States cannot provide India with answers to all questions, whether economically or militarily. With the economic collapse of the two countries and the internal division of the United States, everything has become worse.
These are just two examples of the complexity of the world of tomorrow. In this world, it is not easy to deprive China of the fruits of another victory.