The US dollar exchange rate fell back to the 6th era, regret not withdrawing
- Author:sofreight.com
- Release Date:2022-12-08
Continuous storms, the renminbi returns to the "6 -character head"!I regret not settle foreign exchange, how to get in 2023!Intersection
As soon as the last month of 2022 opened, the foreign trades made the exchange rate rise.
Last Friday (December 2), the intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar was reported at 7.0542, and the cumulative increase of 1,447 basis points in three consecutive trading days.At the close, 7.0195 and 7.0163 were reported, which was only one step away from the "7".
This step was out two days ago.
On the morning of December 5th, the exchange rate of the shore and offshore RMB broke the "7" against the US dollar exchange rate, and rose strongly all the way, and continued to rise through the 6.95 mark.
On September 15th and 16th this year, offshore RMB, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar on the shore, has fallen below the "7" yuan mark. It has only been more than 2 months in the past.Yuan, at that time, foreign traders may catch up with the best time for the whole year.
The US dollar index has fallen from 111.56 points on November 1 to 104.7 on December 1, and the cumulative decline of the US dollar index has fallen by more than 5%in November 1.Recently, Fed Chairman Powell released signals that the Fed may slow down interest rate hikes in public speech.Market institutions predict the weakening of the US dollar's appreciation momentum, strong appreciation cycle or nearing end.
Correspondingly, since November, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has rebounded continuously, and the exchange rates of the shore and offshore RMB to the US dollar have risen by 2.15%and 3.96%, respectively. The monthly increase was the largest in the first 11 months of this year.Starting from the stage, the RMB exchange rate has risen by more than 3,500 base points for a month!
Near the end of the year, many foreign trade companies have started to settle in advance last week.
Trend forecast
Regarding the rapid appreciation of this round of RMB exchange rate, China Gold Corporation pointed out in the research report that after November 10, it was affected by the US CPI data below the expected US CPI data. The Fed turned to the expected strengthening. In the context of a significant weakened in the US dollar, the RMB exchange rate rateStrong rebound.In addition, the main reason for the strong RMB exchange rate is that in November, the adjustment of epidemic prevention policies, real estate policies, and monetary policy on economic expectations brought on the positive impact of economic expectations.
The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said that at present, the phased high of the US dollar index may have passed, and the pressure of passive depreciation of the RMB has weakened.Even if the US dollar index has re -rebounding again, under the influence of the improvement of domestic economic expectations, slowing pressure on the stock and bond market capital outflows, the need for backlog foreign exchange settlement or release at the end of the year, it is difficult to break through the previous period of exchange rates or no longer to break through the US dollar.Low.
The Xingye Research Report pointed out that the capital return stock market is expected to continue its appreciation since November.In October, the exchange rate of the exchange rate exceeded the exchange rate, but under the demand of rigid foreign exchange settlement before the Spring Festival, the renminbi will reappear the strength of the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
Ding Shuang, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank China and North Asia, Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, and Lu Ting, chief economist of China Murakamura Securities China Chief Economist Lu Ting, tended to be in the short termThe US dollar may continue to strengthen. In the first half of next year, the RMB continues to fluctuate. As the economy has stabilized in the second half of next year, it may re -enter the appreciation channel.
"All kinds of factors that lead to depreciation are all spoken, but the RMB is over -adjusted. It obviously has the need to recover and swing from a super -adjustment to a reasonable level .... I think there is no suspense in the reverse breaking 7, there is nothing to discuss this to discuss this", Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin Securities, emphasized recently," Just say what kind of path it will rise to what level, such as the end of next year to 6 yuan, which can be discussed, but this year must be a decline to fall more to more.It's. "
Attention!
Now the pressure is given to the quoted foreign trades, and according to the three -month intersection, no one knows what the exchange rate will be at the beginning of the year next year.
Therefore, it is strongly recommended to increase the exchange rate fluctuation clause in the recent quotation form. Once the exchange rate fluctuates exceeding the preset value, or the quotation single timeout, the quotation needs to be adjusted overall.
E.g:
Valuation period: Unless there is another written agreement, the validity period provided by our company is within 30 days after the quotation date, and then our company reserves the right to modify or revoke the quotation.
Name Reserves the Right to only or Withdraw the Quotation.
Our company will bear the exchange rate fluctuation within +/-1.5%. If the bank's purchase price exchange rate on the date of the contract signing is more than +/- 1.5%, the company reserves the right to modify or withdraw the quotation.
The Bank of Kazakhstan transferred the benchmark interest rate to 16.75%
On December 6, according to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Bank of China was announced on the 5th, the bank's currency and credit policy committee decided to raise the benchmark interest rate from 16%to 16.75%.
According to Harcom News Agency, this is the sixth interest rate hikes this year.It is also said that the central bank of Kazakhstan is expected to be between 20%and 21%this year, and the inflation peak will appear in the first quarter of 2023.
According to reports, the Bank of Kazakhstan decided to raise the benchmark interest rate from 14.5%to 16%on October 26.
The Australian Federal Reserve has slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes for the third consecutive month!This round of interest rate hikes may be close to the end
The Australian Federal Reserve raised interest rates as scheduled to 3.1%.The pricing of the currency market shows that by mid 2023, Australia's interest rate will reach a peak of about 3.6%, which is consistent with the forecast of economists.
After the Australian Fed slowly slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes for several months, the market betting its interest rate hike cycle was nearing its end.
On December 6, the Australian Fed announced the interest rate resolution, raising 25 basis points to 3.1%, reaching the highest level since August 2012, which is basically in line with expectations.
The inflation rate in the Philippines in November rose to 8%, a new high since December 2008
According to data released by the Philippine National Bureau of Statistics on December 6, the Filipino inflation rate reached 8%in November this year, a new high since December 2008.
Data show that in August, September, and October this year, the inflation rates in the Philippines were 6.3%, 6.9%, and 7.7%, respectively, and continued to rise for three consecutive months.At the same time, the country's inflation rate was much higher than 3.7%in the same period last year.
Data show that in the first 11 months of this year, the average inflation rate in the Philippines was 5.6%, which has exceeded 4.5%to 5.5%set by the Macos government in 2022.
Data show that the main factors that lead to rising inflation in the Philippines include food and non -alcoholic beverages.
"At the end of October, the Philippines was attacked by tropical storms, which led to recently rising vegetable prices to rise faster," said Dilptlador, official of the Philippine National Bureau of Statistics.Earlier, the Philippine Central Bank also stated in a statement that rising the rise in agricultural products by tropical storm attacks is one of the main reasons for the country's high inflation pressure.
The Minister of Social and Economic Planning of the Philippines Asenio Barrizan said that the government will continue to implement targeted subsidies to reduce the impact of rising domestic goods and services."At the same time, we need to improve the delivery mechanism in providing assistance to ensure that assistance can be delivered to those in need in time," Barrizan said.
As soon as the last month of 2022 opened, the foreign trades made the exchange rate rise.
Last Friday (December 2), the intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar was reported at 7.0542, and the cumulative increase of 1,447 basis points in three consecutive trading days.At the close, 7.0195 and 7.0163 were reported, which was only one step away from the "7".
This step was out two days ago.
On the morning of December 5th, the exchange rate of the shore and offshore RMB broke the "7" against the US dollar exchange rate, and rose strongly all the way, and continued to rise through the 6.95 mark.
On September 15th and 16th this year, offshore RMB, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar on the shore, has fallen below the "7" yuan mark. It has only been more than 2 months in the past.Yuan, at that time, foreign traders may catch up with the best time for the whole year.
The US dollar index has fallen from 111.56 points on November 1 to 104.7 on December 1, and the cumulative decline of the US dollar index has fallen by more than 5%in November 1.Recently, Fed Chairman Powell released signals that the Fed may slow down interest rate hikes in public speech.Market institutions predict the weakening of the US dollar's appreciation momentum, strong appreciation cycle or nearing end.
Correspondingly, since November, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has rebounded continuously, and the exchange rates of the shore and offshore RMB to the US dollar have risen by 2.15%and 3.96%, respectively. The monthly increase was the largest in the first 11 months of this year.Starting from the stage, the RMB exchange rate has risen by more than 3,500 base points for a month!
Near the end of the year, many foreign trade companies have started to settle in advance last week.
Trend forecast
Regarding the rapid appreciation of this round of RMB exchange rate, China Gold Corporation pointed out in the research report that after November 10, it was affected by the US CPI data below the expected US CPI data. The Fed turned to the expected strengthening. In the context of a significant weakened in the US dollar, the RMB exchange rate rateStrong rebound.In addition, the main reason for the strong RMB exchange rate is that in November, the adjustment of epidemic prevention policies, real estate policies, and monetary policy on economic expectations brought on the positive impact of economic expectations.
The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said that at present, the phased high of the US dollar index may have passed, and the pressure of passive depreciation of the RMB has weakened.Even if the US dollar index has re -rebounding again, under the influence of the improvement of domestic economic expectations, slowing pressure on the stock and bond market capital outflows, the need for backlog foreign exchange settlement or release at the end of the year, it is difficult to break through the previous period of exchange rates or no longer to break through the US dollar.Low.
The Xingye Research Report pointed out that the capital return stock market is expected to continue its appreciation since November.In October, the exchange rate of the exchange rate exceeded the exchange rate, but under the demand of rigid foreign exchange settlement before the Spring Festival, the renminbi will reappear the strength of the end of the year and the beginning of the year.
Ding Shuang, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank China and North Asia, Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, and Lu Ting, chief economist of China Murakamura Securities China Chief Economist Lu Ting, tended to be in the short termThe US dollar may continue to strengthen. In the first half of next year, the RMB continues to fluctuate. As the economy has stabilized in the second half of next year, it may re -enter the appreciation channel.
"All kinds of factors that lead to depreciation are all spoken, but the RMB is over -adjusted. It obviously has the need to recover and swing from a super -adjustment to a reasonable level .... I think there is no suspense in the reverse breaking 7, there is nothing to discuss this to discuss this", Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin Securities, emphasized recently," Just say what kind of path it will rise to what level, such as the end of next year to 6 yuan, which can be discussed, but this year must be a decline to fall more to more.It's. "
Attention!
Now the pressure is given to the quoted foreign trades, and according to the three -month intersection, no one knows what the exchange rate will be at the beginning of the year next year.
Therefore, it is strongly recommended to increase the exchange rate fluctuation clause in the recent quotation form. Once the exchange rate fluctuates exceeding the preset value, or the quotation single timeout, the quotation needs to be adjusted overall.
E.g:
Valuation period: Unless there is another written agreement, the validity period provided by our company is within 30 days after the quotation date, and then our company reserves the right to modify or revoke the quotation.
Name Reserves the Right to only or Withdraw the Quotation.
Our company will bear the exchange rate fluctuation within +/-1.5%. If the bank's purchase price exchange rate on the date of the contract signing is more than +/- 1.5%, the company reserves the right to modify or withdraw the quotation.
The Bank of Kazakhstan transferred the benchmark interest rate to 16.75%
On December 6, according to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Bank of China was announced on the 5th, the bank's currency and credit policy committee decided to raise the benchmark interest rate from 16%to 16.75%.
According to Harcom News Agency, this is the sixth interest rate hikes this year.It is also said that the central bank of Kazakhstan is expected to be between 20%and 21%this year, and the inflation peak will appear in the first quarter of 2023.
According to reports, the Bank of Kazakhstan decided to raise the benchmark interest rate from 14.5%to 16%on October 26.
The Australian Federal Reserve has slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes for the third consecutive month!This round of interest rate hikes may be close to the end
The Australian Federal Reserve raised interest rates as scheduled to 3.1%.The pricing of the currency market shows that by mid 2023, Australia's interest rate will reach a peak of about 3.6%, which is consistent with the forecast of economists.
After the Australian Fed slowly slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes for several months, the market betting its interest rate hike cycle was nearing its end.
On December 6, the Australian Fed announced the interest rate resolution, raising 25 basis points to 3.1%, reaching the highest level since August 2012, which is basically in line with expectations.
The inflation rate in the Philippines in November rose to 8%, a new high since December 2008
According to data released by the Philippine National Bureau of Statistics on December 6, the Filipino inflation rate reached 8%in November this year, a new high since December 2008.
Data show that in August, September, and October this year, the inflation rates in the Philippines were 6.3%, 6.9%, and 7.7%, respectively, and continued to rise for three consecutive months.At the same time, the country's inflation rate was much higher than 3.7%in the same period last year.
Data show that in the first 11 months of this year, the average inflation rate in the Philippines was 5.6%, which has exceeded 4.5%to 5.5%set by the Macos government in 2022.
Data show that the main factors that lead to rising inflation in the Philippines include food and non -alcoholic beverages.
"At the end of October, the Philippines was attacked by tropical storms, which led to recently rising vegetable prices to rise faster," said Dilptlador, official of the Philippine National Bureau of Statistics.Earlier, the Philippine Central Bank also stated in a statement that rising the rise in agricultural products by tropical storm attacks is one of the main reasons for the country's high inflation pressure.
The Minister of Social and Economic Planning of the Philippines Asenio Barrizan said that the government will continue to implement targeted subsidies to reduce the impact of rising domestic goods and services."At the same time, we need to improve the delivery mechanism in providing assistance to ensure that assistance can be delivered to those in need in time," Barrizan said.