The amount of goods in the United States also fell below 2019?
- Author:sofreight.com
- Release Date:2022-11-10
2022 has been left for two months, and there is no good news in the market. The US -line freight rate is still going down, although the amplitude is small. Everyone was asking: Where are the goods going?
It is a fact if the goods are less. The fast falling price reflects the pessimistic mood of the market in June. Finally, the facts of the import data from the United States in August (to Hong Kong Day) have caught up with emotions. The amount fell for the first time last year. As other aspects, the decline in the amount of goods has inertia and acceleration. The decline in September continues to fall. By October, the data was a bit shocking.
Everyone regards 2019 as a "normal" year. It seems that the end of the post -epidemic era is 2019, but it is quickly discovered that the market does not think so. The western shipping price has fallen below the level of 2019. It is worrying that the amount of goods follows closely, and it has also fallen below the same period in 2019.
From January to October 2022 (all time below is from Hong Kong Day, unless there is another explanation), the export volume from Asia to the United States remains unchanged from last year. This is mainly due to the growth of January to July. From August It began to fall slightly, decreased by 13%in September, and in October, the decline further expanded to 20%! This is not the worst news. Compared with the same period of 2019 (the blue curve above the figure below), this year's goods have increased significantly in the first nine months, although the growth has slowed down in the third quarter. In October, the situation deteriorated sharply, and the amount of goods had fallen below the same period in 2019. The ETA in October is about the departure day from September to early October, that is, the most prosperous shipping season, and the result is less than the "normal" 2019.
The overall situation of Asia is not optimistic. Let's take a look at the three leaders: China, Vietnam, India.
Look at China first.
China's US -line export situation is worrying. From January to October this year, the amount of goods fell 5%year-on-year from last year. August is a watershed. It has increased month -on -month, slightly declining in August, a decrease of 23%in September, and the gap in October continued to expand, a year -on -year decrease of 30%! To make matters worse, compared with 2019, September is 6%less and 9%less in October! (The blue curve above the figure below).
I wonder if you still remember what the 2019 peak season is like? Yes, there was no obvious peak season at that time, and the amount of goods did not increase significantly in the second quarter. In other words, this year's "peak season" in China is not as good as the normal month of a normal year. In the context of the overall decline in exports of exports, China has a greater decline.
The development trajectory of Vietnamese goods is very different from China. From January to October this year, the volume of goods increased by 2%year-on-year, and it seemed inconspicuous. However, if you look closely at the trend of each month, you can still see the clue. After a decrease of 10%year -on -year in July and August this year, a rebound began in September, an increase of 10%, and the increase in October reached 18%! As far as Vietnam is concerned, there is still a peak season this year. Compared with 2019, the growth is even more obvious. From January to October, 65%increased from three years ago! The trend of China and Vietnam is very obvious.
Finally, look at another hot country: India. From the perspective of the total amount of exports to the United States, China is 4.5 times that of Vietnam (once 8-10 times), while Vietnam is about twice the times of India. In the first 10 months of this year, India exported to the United States by 6%year -on -year. It maintained a high -speed growth in the first half of the year, repeated in the third quarter, the first decline in August, rebounded in September, and fell again in October, as high as 17%. Compared with 2019, from January to October this year, it has increased by 44%. Like Vietnam, India ’s proportion of imports in the United States has also increased year by year, although the base is small.
Obviously, the root cause of the amount of goods is on the demand side: the "three highs" problem in the United States (high inventory, high inflation, high interest rate) lead to decline in orders and sharp decline in goods. Due to the different trade policies, the industrial structure and competitiveness are different, the reduction of US orders has different impact on various countries in Asia. The volume of goods in November and December last year remained at a high level, and the amount of goods in November this year may fall a few more percentage on the basis of October. The final data in November is estimated to be difficult to see. The "wish" of the industry was returning to the normal 2019. As everyone knows, "normal" may be extravagant.
It is a fact if the goods are less. The fast falling price reflects the pessimistic mood of the market in June. Finally, the facts of the import data from the United States in August (to Hong Kong Day) have caught up with emotions. The amount fell for the first time last year. As other aspects, the decline in the amount of goods has inertia and acceleration. The decline in September continues to fall. By October, the data was a bit shocking.
Everyone regards 2019 as a "normal" year. It seems that the end of the post -epidemic era is 2019, but it is quickly discovered that the market does not think so. The western shipping price has fallen below the level of 2019. It is worrying that the amount of goods follows closely, and it has also fallen below the same period in 2019.
From January to October 2022 (all time below is from Hong Kong Day, unless there is another explanation), the export volume from Asia to the United States remains unchanged from last year. This is mainly due to the growth of January to July. From August It began to fall slightly, decreased by 13%in September, and in October, the decline further expanded to 20%! This is not the worst news. Compared with the same period of 2019 (the blue curve above the figure below), this year's goods have increased significantly in the first nine months, although the growth has slowed down in the third quarter. In October, the situation deteriorated sharply, and the amount of goods had fallen below the same period in 2019. The ETA in October is about the departure day from September to early October, that is, the most prosperous shipping season, and the result is less than the "normal" 2019.
The overall situation of Asia is not optimistic. Let's take a look at the three leaders: China, Vietnam, India.
Look at China first.
China's US -line export situation is worrying. From January to October this year, the amount of goods fell 5%year-on-year from last year. August is a watershed. It has increased month -on -month, slightly declining in August, a decrease of 23%in September, and the gap in October continued to expand, a year -on -year decrease of 30%! To make matters worse, compared with 2019, September is 6%less and 9%less in October! (The blue curve above the figure below).
I wonder if you still remember what the 2019 peak season is like? Yes, there was no obvious peak season at that time, and the amount of goods did not increase significantly in the second quarter. In other words, this year's "peak season" in China is not as good as the normal month of a normal year. In the context of the overall decline in exports of exports, China has a greater decline.
The development trajectory of Vietnamese goods is very different from China. From January to October this year, the volume of goods increased by 2%year-on-year, and it seemed inconspicuous. However, if you look closely at the trend of each month, you can still see the clue. After a decrease of 10%year -on -year in July and August this year, a rebound began in September, an increase of 10%, and the increase in October reached 18%! As far as Vietnam is concerned, there is still a peak season this year. Compared with 2019, the growth is even more obvious. From January to October, 65%increased from three years ago! The trend of China and Vietnam is very obvious.
Finally, look at another hot country: India. From the perspective of the total amount of exports to the United States, China is 4.5 times that of Vietnam (once 8-10 times), while Vietnam is about twice the times of India. In the first 10 months of this year, India exported to the United States by 6%year -on -year. It maintained a high -speed growth in the first half of the year, repeated in the third quarter, the first decline in August, rebounded in September, and fell again in October, as high as 17%. Compared with 2019, from January to October this year, it has increased by 44%. Like Vietnam, India ’s proportion of imports in the United States has also increased year by year, although the base is small.
Obviously, the root cause of the amount of goods is on the demand side: the "three highs" problem in the United States (high inventory, high inflation, high interest rate) lead to decline in orders and sharp decline in goods. Due to the different trade policies, the industrial structure and competitiveness are different, the reduction of US orders has different impact on various countries in Asia. The volume of goods in November and December last year remained at a high level, and the amount of goods in November this year may fall a few more percentage on the basis of October. The final data in November is estimated to be difficult to see. The "wish" of the industry was returning to the normal 2019. As everyone knows, "normal" may be extravagant.