The country is 10 times that the sea is 10 times, and where is "blocking"?
- Author:BESSON
- Release Date:2022-01-15
The story starts with a banana that is not expensive.
In the Chinese supermarket, I want to buy a banana produced from the world's number one banana exported to the country, how much is it?
Before the epidemic is out of hair, it is generally as long as 4-5 yuan.
To know that these bananas need to cross more than 16,000 kilometers away, from South America, it takes more than a month. Extremely low container shipping price, let bananas become the largest fresh fruit in the global trade volume.
The story of bananas can also be said to be the epitome of the world. Most people have become accustomed to the convenience of low maritime prices.
But from the epidemic, the global shipping cost opened the crazy price increase model. For only one year, the shipping cost has risen by 10 times.
? 国 is the straight train Hou Yuzhen
Why is the shipping cost soaring? What crisis is a global supply chain into? How long will this happen? Global Container Shipping Logistics Giarist Maji (China) Co., Ltd. Jens Eskelund recently accepted the China New Society country is an interview with direct traffic.
Top 10 times the freight rate
As the epidemic is effective, the international market has gradually recovered, and European and American companies are eager to supplement the inventory depleted due to epidemic, and the demand for marine business continues to rise.
At the same time, at the same time, the multinational factories have insufficient operating rates, international dock stop, staged epic congestion. In the past few months, the containers that have been loaded with imported goods are retained in the United States port, and a large number of vessels are queued by the port, waiting for time long.
Due to the chaos of the global supply chain, it is possible to use capacity to keep trade demand, so that the container cannot be circulated normally, and the price of sea has skyrocket.
Data of the logistics platform Freightos showed a 40-foot container from China to the US West Coast to reach 20,000 US dollars last August. As of 14 January, this data fell back to $ 14,600, although lower than the peak of summer, but still more than 10 times before the epidemic. In February 2020 before the global epidemics, this price is approximately $ 1200.
The sea is not smooth
? Image Source: Reviewer for map
The sea is not smooth, exposing the deep problem of the supply chain.
Yan Yan believes that the global supply chain is blocked, and the imbalance between market supply and demand is the direct cause of rising transportation. In addition, the ship's pier work efficiency is lowered, and the cost of the ship and container rental costs rises sharply, and the increase in cost increase in the cost of providing a supply chain replacement solution is also promoted.
But he pointed out that the freight rate here is the murderend price (short-term freight in three months), Maersk is currently arranged in accordance with the signed long-term contracts, "We The freight with customers is maintained in the contract period and is not affected by the large fluctuations in the market. "
In fact, Yan Yan said that the supply chain is not smooth, and it has been largely turned to a continental transport bottleneck problem.
He pointed out that the port percentage is reduced, causing the container to enter and exit slow, and the vessel delay. And the efficiency of the port is dragged down by the shortage of labor, insufficient combination, and the storage space is not enough.
Taking the shortage of labor as an example, under the dual-fertile attack of the epidemic and inflation, some countries have continuous innovative and high-quality, and the shortage of labor is reflected in the systemic deficiency of all aspects of supply chain. For example, there is not enough truck driver to transport goods; there is not enough worker loading and unloading the goods.
Nowadays, many port yields are extremely high. When the truck arrives, it can only be "excavated" a container to load the car. How low efficiency is, it is understood.
Yan Zang pointed out that the situation is the most serious, the Los Angeles and Seattle, the US West Coast, the container waiting time is 4 weeks, plus different levels of delays in the Nordic and Asian ports, making the original design as a 12-week ring, need 13 weeks or even 14 weeks can be done.
Not only that, but the port operation interruption will produce a series of chain reactions. For example, the ship delayed ship delay in the US Western Bay area will affect ships towards Europe and other regions, these ships are late, and the negative cycle is again formed.
China port operation is smooth
Yan Yan said that the phenomenon of overseas port is congested, and the phenomenon of empty box is stark contrast, and China's port operation is open.
In the view of Yan Yan, China's port operation is extremely efficient, not only widely used new technologies, but also attaches great importance to cooperation with the port ecosystem. Because of this, the center of gravity of global trade during the epidemic in China, even in the abundant volume increases, China's port can remain in order.
"It can be said that China has a world-class port system."
Analysis believes that on the one hand, in the global industry chain, Chinese manufacturing plays an important role. China is timely and effectively controls the epidemic, and the recovery is expected to recruit production. On the other hand, with the global economic recovery, Europe and the United States has a surge in demand for Asian products, and imported replenishment demand is strong, so a large number of goods are continuously flowing from China to overseas, and support trade transport is growing.
Short-term is difficult to improve
Will you have any adverse effects on global trade?
In the view of Yan Yan, in the expected demand, strong demand, strong demand, and increased salary, 2022 global economic development prospects are still good. 2022, the demand needs will continue to support international trade.
At the same time, the new crown epidemic continues, the labor market is sluggish, the supply chain, the rising price, the rise in price and government financial support will enable the global economy to face a large pressure, which may result in decrease in demand, curb the growth.
Recent data shows that US CPI has increased by 7% year-on-year, and the inflation rate reached a high point of 40 years.
Yan Yan believes that the supply chain compression is difficult to have a significant improvement in the first quarter of this year, and this situation or continues to the Chinese Lunar New Year. Moreover, in North America, it is very likely that this will continue longer.
Yan Yang emphasized that Maersi provides end-to-end logistics solutions to address supply chain challenges by including shipping, railways, air transportation.
How to open the sea?
? Image Source: Reviewer for map
The sea is not smooth to international trade recovery, how should we dredge the sea trade aorta, open international supply chain?
Yan Yan speaks: "The key is to establish the elasticity of the supply chain and reduce volatility."
He said, it is obvious, and the current supply chain is not strong enough to resist epidemic interference. International trade systems need an intuitive, transparent digital supply chain, on the one hand, conduct scientific planning and system optimization, on the other hand, need to create a buffer to address any uncertainties.
In addition, Yan Yan also believes that supply chain bottleneck leads to inadequate effectiveness, and another factor in the phenomenon of shortage, lack of shortage, shortage, and freight on the market is structural issues.
In the past 10-15 years, the sea product is extremely homogenized. After the 2008 financial crisis, homogeneous problems caused operators to focus on short-term freight rates, and the result is that all participants on the supply chain are too valued in cost management.
Such strategies are effective when all aspects are running smoothly, but they face challenges when supplying stress. In the past decade before the epidemic, the average profit margin of container shipping companies is less than 2%, and the freight is much lower than the cost of transportation.
The shipping company has more investment in competition, and more expensive vessels, and these ships reach 95% in the loading rate to reach the balance of payments. This also promotes the use of speculative cooperation models between the shipping company and the goods, making the freight rate to face great downward pressure, and the result is the flexibility and toughness of the supply chain. So once there is a black swan event like a new crown epidemic, there is no too much buffer space.
Yan Yan said that it is hoped that all parties can learn from the current situation, and more want to reduce the fluctuations of freight rates to achieve more stable income. The violent fluctuations in the market make companies make long-term investment decisions and planning.
"Although this requires a certain price, it will bring huge long-term benefits to foreign trade companies." He said.
In the Chinese supermarket, I want to buy a banana produced from the world's number one banana exported to the country, how much is it?
Before the epidemic is out of hair, it is generally as long as 4-5 yuan.
To know that these bananas need to cross more than 16,000 kilometers away, from South America, it takes more than a month. Extremely low container shipping price, let bananas become the largest fresh fruit in the global trade volume.
The story of bananas can also be said to be the epitome of the world. Most people have become accustomed to the convenience of low maritime prices.
But from the epidemic, the global shipping cost opened the crazy price increase model. For only one year, the shipping cost has risen by 10 times.
? 国 is the straight train Hou Yuzhen
Why is the shipping cost soaring? What crisis is a global supply chain into? How long will this happen? Global Container Shipping Logistics Giarist Maji (China) Co., Ltd. Jens Eskelund recently accepted the China New Society country is an interview with direct traffic.
Top 10 times the freight rate
As the epidemic is effective, the international market has gradually recovered, and European and American companies are eager to supplement the inventory depleted due to epidemic, and the demand for marine business continues to rise.
At the same time, at the same time, the multinational factories have insufficient operating rates, international dock stop, staged epic congestion. In the past few months, the containers that have been loaded with imported goods are retained in the United States port, and a large number of vessels are queued by the port, waiting for time long.
Due to the chaos of the global supply chain, it is possible to use capacity to keep trade demand, so that the container cannot be circulated normally, and the price of sea has skyrocket.
Data of the logistics platform Freightos showed a 40-foot container from China to the US West Coast to reach 20,000 US dollars last August. As of 14 January, this data fell back to $ 14,600, although lower than the peak of summer, but still more than 10 times before the epidemic. In February 2020 before the global epidemics, this price is approximately $ 1200.
The sea is not smooth
? Image Source: Reviewer for map
The sea is not smooth, exposing the deep problem of the supply chain.
Yan Yan believes that the global supply chain is blocked, and the imbalance between market supply and demand is the direct cause of rising transportation. In addition, the ship's pier work efficiency is lowered, and the cost of the ship and container rental costs rises sharply, and the increase in cost increase in the cost of providing a supply chain replacement solution is also promoted.
But he pointed out that the freight rate here is the murderend price (short-term freight in three months), Maersk is currently arranged in accordance with the signed long-term contracts, "We The freight with customers is maintained in the contract period and is not affected by the large fluctuations in the market. "
In fact, Yan Yan said that the supply chain is not smooth, and it has been largely turned to a continental transport bottleneck problem.
He pointed out that the port percentage is reduced, causing the container to enter and exit slow, and the vessel delay. And the efficiency of the port is dragged down by the shortage of labor, insufficient combination, and the storage space is not enough.
Taking the shortage of labor as an example, under the dual-fertile attack of the epidemic and inflation, some countries have continuous innovative and high-quality, and the shortage of labor is reflected in the systemic deficiency of all aspects of supply chain. For example, there is not enough truck driver to transport goods; there is not enough worker loading and unloading the goods.
Nowadays, many port yields are extremely high. When the truck arrives, it can only be "excavated" a container to load the car. How low efficiency is, it is understood.
Yan Zang pointed out that the situation is the most serious, the Los Angeles and Seattle, the US West Coast, the container waiting time is 4 weeks, plus different levels of delays in the Nordic and Asian ports, making the original design as a 12-week ring, need 13 weeks or even 14 weeks can be done.
Not only that, but the port operation interruption will produce a series of chain reactions. For example, the ship delayed ship delay in the US Western Bay area will affect ships towards Europe and other regions, these ships are late, and the negative cycle is again formed.
China port operation is smooth
Yan Yan said that the phenomenon of overseas port is congested, and the phenomenon of empty box is stark contrast, and China's port operation is open.
In the view of Yan Yan, China's port operation is extremely efficient, not only widely used new technologies, but also attaches great importance to cooperation with the port ecosystem. Because of this, the center of gravity of global trade during the epidemic in China, even in the abundant volume increases, China's port can remain in order.
"It can be said that China has a world-class port system."
Analysis believes that on the one hand, in the global industry chain, Chinese manufacturing plays an important role. China is timely and effectively controls the epidemic, and the recovery is expected to recruit production. On the other hand, with the global economic recovery, Europe and the United States has a surge in demand for Asian products, and imported replenishment demand is strong, so a large number of goods are continuously flowing from China to overseas, and support trade transport is growing.
Short-term is difficult to improve
Will you have any adverse effects on global trade?
In the view of Yan Yan, in the expected demand, strong demand, strong demand, and increased salary, 2022 global economic development prospects are still good. 2022, the demand needs will continue to support international trade.
At the same time, the new crown epidemic continues, the labor market is sluggish, the supply chain, the rising price, the rise in price and government financial support will enable the global economy to face a large pressure, which may result in decrease in demand, curb the growth.
Recent data shows that US CPI has increased by 7% year-on-year, and the inflation rate reached a high point of 40 years.
Yan Yan believes that the supply chain compression is difficult to have a significant improvement in the first quarter of this year, and this situation or continues to the Chinese Lunar New Year. Moreover, in North America, it is very likely that this will continue longer.
Yan Yang emphasized that Maersi provides end-to-end logistics solutions to address supply chain challenges by including shipping, railways, air transportation.
How to open the sea?
? Image Source: Reviewer for map
The sea is not smooth to international trade recovery, how should we dredge the sea trade aorta, open international supply chain?
Yan Yan speaks: "The key is to establish the elasticity of the supply chain and reduce volatility."
He said, it is obvious, and the current supply chain is not strong enough to resist epidemic interference. International trade systems need an intuitive, transparent digital supply chain, on the one hand, conduct scientific planning and system optimization, on the other hand, need to create a buffer to address any uncertainties.
In addition, Yan Yan also believes that supply chain bottleneck leads to inadequate effectiveness, and another factor in the phenomenon of shortage, lack of shortage, shortage, and freight on the market is structural issues.
In the past 10-15 years, the sea product is extremely homogenized. After the 2008 financial crisis, homogeneous problems caused operators to focus on short-term freight rates, and the result is that all participants on the supply chain are too valued in cost management.
Such strategies are effective when all aspects are running smoothly, but they face challenges when supplying stress. In the past decade before the epidemic, the average profit margin of container shipping companies is less than 2%, and the freight is much lower than the cost of transportation.
The shipping company has more investment in competition, and more expensive vessels, and these ships reach 95% in the loading rate to reach the balance of payments. This also promotes the use of speculative cooperation models between the shipping company and the goods, making the freight rate to face great downward pressure, and the result is the flexibility and toughness of the supply chain. So once there is a black swan event like a new crown epidemic, there is no too much buffer space.
Yan Yan said that it is hoped that all parties can learn from the current situation, and more want to reduce the fluctuations of freight rates to achieve more stable income. The violent fluctuations in the market make companies make long-term investment decisions and planning.
"Although this requires a certain price, it will bring huge long-term benefits to foreign trade companies." He said.