The global shipping "card neck" report is expected to last until 2022
- Author:BESSON
- Release Date:2021-09-04
The Suez Canal's traffic jacket has already filed a fall, but the dark clouds on the top of the world's supply of the world have not been dispersed. Southeast Asia's epidemic, misplaced demand, so that the level in front of the sea will follow one. From Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City to the US Los Angeles, the container is full of pier, the trunk is waiting for unloading. Holding a whole body, whether it is the upstream manufacturing industry or the downstream consumption, there is no passive situation that is difficult to face a box of hardships and freight. From the current epidemic situation, the overwhelming weight of the sea industry will continue.
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"The warehouse is full, the railway field and the carriage have been filled, the container is still a case, the ship has been in Hong Kong and waiting for the anchorage, the factory output has been recorded, but still can't keep the order, facing the current shipping industry, facing the current shipping industry, Gene Seroka, Port Executive, Los Angeles.
This is not exaggerated. In the first seven months of this year, Port of Los Angeles reached 6.3 million standard boxes, an increase of 36.8% over 2020.
In the second half of the year, as two major container ports in the West Coast, Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach is increasingly overwhelming. Have earlier last week, 37 large container ships were parked outside Los Angeles Port and Long Beach Port. On August 26, two ports have set the highest congestion record, and the congestion is still serious than that of 2002 and 2004 ports. The average waiting time of the vessel has risen from 6.2 days in mid-August to 7.6 days.
Gene Seroka describes the status quo with the CHAIRS Daniel Maffei Chairman Daniel Maffei, "We are trying to do it, it is to enter the traffic traffic of 10 highway traffic lanes into 5, and will definitely delay."
Not just Los Angeles, most ports in the world are full. According to the statistics of SeaExplorer, the Maritime Platform of Dexun, as of August 27, more than 355 ships were parked outside the port, because many of the global ports were interrupted. In two months ago, the affected ship was just over 300.
It has become a normal late. Global Large Freight Broker C. H. Robinson Logistics CEO Bob Biesterfeld pointed out: "At present, the current rate arrive on time is 40%, and 80% last year."
Under the increasingly severe congestion, the shipping costs of the sea will rise. C. H. Robinson logistics released World Container Index shows that a 40-foot container has reached a 40-foot container in the eight-dimensional transportation costs of 8,40-foot containers to 8.60% from the same period last year. The price rose the largest route, the price of 40 feet containers has soared 659%.
Taking the Sino-US route as an example, as of August 27th, shipping price of China / Southeast Asia to the North America East Coast, from the beginning of August 20636 US dollars, returned to 20,000 US dollars again, currently The price is $ 20057 per feu, an increase of 5% from the previous week; at the same time, China / Southeast Asia western coastal route is slightly returned, and the freight rate is $ 18425 per feu, an increase of 5% from the previous week. .
Time and space is "misplaced"
Behind the data, the shipping companies are happy when they are happy. "Affilience is affected", Shanghai Xipu International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. Sales Manager Zhang Yongheng said, he told Beijing Business Daily reporters, overall, now the whole industry is getting higher and higher, the position is nervous, the ship is unstable, Foreign unloading is slow.
"Many low-priced goods or lower profits are basically unachable. Many customers' goods are kept in the warehouse", Zhang Yongheng said, now the freight changes are very frequent, many goods mains and foreign prices, etc. Good goods production, the freight has changed, often coming back.
Another international logistics company's sales staff Chen Wei told Beijing Business Daily reporters who have become used to this change. It is basically fundamentally for in short supply, and the row will start.
Under the continued rise in freight, Chen Wei is also very helpless. "On the week, this week, the price increase is very obvious, but it is basically 3-5 yuan, but the goods above 500kg, 1kg's profits are generally 1,2 yuan. Around, this is a lot directly. "
According to the latest data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of August 27, the Shanghai Export Container Index (SCFI), which represents the show, is 4385.62 points, and the historical high, compared with the lowest point of 820, the increase is up to 435%.
In the view of the deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, there is three main reason for the nervousness of the sea industry. The first is the misplaced time of time. It turns out that the foreign trade transportation is limited during the period of the epidemic, but now, my country's epidemic is relieved, and it will restore the goods in stock, resulting in an increase in the shipments of the shipping business; second is the dislocation in space, some areas are still being The influence of the epidemic, causing some freighters to enter the port, need to go to other places, leading to the port queue and even congestion.
Taking Vietnam as an example, since July, the Vietnamese epidemics has been severe. The local government has adopted a strict epidemic prevention measures. At the beginning of August, the country's largest port Karai was forced to suspend operation. The number of whales workers was cut to half, forklift drivers and The truck driver is also facing shortages, causing the container yard near full. Under the helpless, in the first half of August, the port is suspended to handle the transfer box and transport goods.
In addition, from demand, Bai Ming also mentioned a point-of demand and supply asymmetry, as an example of Sino-US route, my country's exported goods to the United States, and less imports from the United States.
At the moment, in the port of Los Angeles, the proportion of containers has reached 5: 1. The person in charge of Port Los Angeles was sigh, "our biggest export is air."
The US Retail Federation pointed out that "August is the beginning of the traditional 'peak season", retailers will hoard holiday goods in advance at this time. Many retailers have improved this time this time, which is part of the risk strategy. To ensure adequate stocks during the holidays.
Supply chain crisis
Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Sino-US route and the Ministry of Commerce, and Zhang Jianping, director of the Regional Economic Research Center, pointed out that China's ability to manufacture industry and cargo trade is relatively strong, and the US Ou and other places are severe, but for daily consumer goods The demand is not reduced, and it is less likely to block the source, which leads to the problem of container pressure-wide problems; coupled with the shipping company may consider it, it is better to return to the source, which will also add it.
UBS expects the port congestion in the research report to last until 2022. This large-scale congestion causes the ship queue to stop and delays in the ship, and crowded a lot of capacity on major trade routes, and severely dragged shipping efficiency.
Global supply chain is full of body, while the container is blocked in the port, the manufacturer waiting for transportation is anxious. In South America, meat exports are already a big problem. Korni Pauls, Chairman of the Paraguay Meat Chamber of Commerce (CPC), said that due to lack of sea containers, transportation costs soared and the transportation time is unstable, the national meat processor's number of slaughter this month may be reduced by 20% - 25%.
Not only is upstream, and the downstream consumption is also warned. For example, the American toy production of business treasures is planning to raise prices to deal with continuously rising transportation costs and raw materials, the company expects that the shipping cost this year will be 4 times higher than last year.
"In addition to the improvement of commodity prices, consumers need to prepare for several weeks of freight delays, so as not to return to the shopping season." Biesterfeld pointed out.
"Now, it is not possible to say that the supply chain is interrupted, mainly because different countries have different extents, and the epidemic prevention measures of each country are different. Of course, some countries have organized the economic problems, such as Some countries have problems in production, manufacturing, circulation, and consumption, resulting in this relatively special shipping market fluctuations. "Zhang Jianping pointed out.
In this round of "super cycles", earning the ship's shipping company continues to increase profit expectations. The latest half-year report in Maersk showed that the company had a net profit of $ 3732 million in the second quarter, which was much higher than $ 359 million last year, and set the best quarterly performance in history.
As for this kind of very norm, Zhang Jianping said that it is not very good to judge, and the foreign trade market is generally volatility. This is a variety of factors that will not be supplemented with the growth rate, market demand, other logistics methods of import and export.Related, "But indeed, now the price of containers is high, I hope to return to normal as soon as possible."
In Bing Ming, this situation has to last for a while, but it may not be as serious as it is now, my country has also taken a series of measures to relieve it. For example, through China-Europe class reduces the dependence on the sea, it also puts a lot of containers. But it can only be said to be alleviated, and it is still not realistic in the short term.
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"The warehouse is full, the railway field and the carriage have been filled, the container is still a case, the ship has been in Hong Kong and waiting for the anchorage, the factory output has been recorded, but still can't keep the order, facing the current shipping industry, facing the current shipping industry, Gene Seroka, Port Executive, Los Angeles.
This is not exaggerated. In the first seven months of this year, Port of Los Angeles reached 6.3 million standard boxes, an increase of 36.8% over 2020.
In the second half of the year, as two major container ports in the West Coast, Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach is increasingly overwhelming. Have earlier last week, 37 large container ships were parked outside Los Angeles Port and Long Beach Port. On August 26, two ports have set the highest congestion record, and the congestion is still serious than that of 2002 and 2004 ports. The average waiting time of the vessel has risen from 6.2 days in mid-August to 7.6 days.
Gene Seroka describes the status quo with the CHAIRS Daniel Maffei Chairman Daniel Maffei, "We are trying to do it, it is to enter the traffic traffic of 10 highway traffic lanes into 5, and will definitely delay."
Not just Los Angeles, most ports in the world are full. According to the statistics of SeaExplorer, the Maritime Platform of Dexun, as of August 27, more than 355 ships were parked outside the port, because many of the global ports were interrupted. In two months ago, the affected ship was just over 300.
It has become a normal late. Global Large Freight Broker C. H. Robinson Logistics CEO Bob Biesterfeld pointed out: "At present, the current rate arrive on time is 40%, and 80% last year."
Under the increasingly severe congestion, the shipping costs of the sea will rise. C. H. Robinson logistics released World Container Index shows that a 40-foot container has reached a 40-foot container in the eight-dimensional transportation costs of 8,40-foot containers to 8.60% from the same period last year. The price rose the largest route, the price of 40 feet containers has soared 659%.
Taking the Sino-US route as an example, as of August 27th, shipping price of China / Southeast Asia to the North America East Coast, from the beginning of August 20636 US dollars, returned to 20,000 US dollars again, currently The price is $ 20057 per feu, an increase of 5% from the previous week; at the same time, China / Southeast Asia western coastal route is slightly returned, and the freight rate is $ 18425 per feu, an increase of 5% from the previous week. .
Time and space is "misplaced"
Behind the data, the shipping companies are happy when they are happy. "Affilience is affected", Shanghai Xipu International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. Sales Manager Zhang Yongheng said, he told Beijing Business Daily reporters, overall, now the whole industry is getting higher and higher, the position is nervous, the ship is unstable, Foreign unloading is slow.
"Many low-priced goods or lower profits are basically unachable. Many customers' goods are kept in the warehouse", Zhang Yongheng said, now the freight changes are very frequent, many goods mains and foreign prices, etc. Good goods production, the freight has changed, often coming back.
Another international logistics company's sales staff Chen Wei told Beijing Business Daily reporters who have become used to this change. It is basically fundamentally for in short supply, and the row will start.
Under the continued rise in freight, Chen Wei is also very helpless. "On the week, this week, the price increase is very obvious, but it is basically 3-5 yuan, but the goods above 500kg, 1kg's profits are generally 1,2 yuan. Around, this is a lot directly. "
According to the latest data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of August 27, the Shanghai Export Container Index (SCFI), which represents the show, is 4385.62 points, and the historical high, compared with the lowest point of 820, the increase is up to 435%.
In the view of the deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, there is three main reason for the nervousness of the sea industry. The first is the misplaced time of time. It turns out that the foreign trade transportation is limited during the period of the epidemic, but now, my country's epidemic is relieved, and it will restore the goods in stock, resulting in an increase in the shipments of the shipping business; second is the dislocation in space, some areas are still being The influence of the epidemic, causing some freighters to enter the port, need to go to other places, leading to the port queue and even congestion.
Taking Vietnam as an example, since July, the Vietnamese epidemics has been severe. The local government has adopted a strict epidemic prevention measures. At the beginning of August, the country's largest port Karai was forced to suspend operation. The number of whales workers was cut to half, forklift drivers and The truck driver is also facing shortages, causing the container yard near full. Under the helpless, in the first half of August, the port is suspended to handle the transfer box and transport goods.
In addition, from demand, Bai Ming also mentioned a point-of demand and supply asymmetry, as an example of Sino-US route, my country's exported goods to the United States, and less imports from the United States.
At the moment, in the port of Los Angeles, the proportion of containers has reached 5: 1. The person in charge of Port Los Angeles was sigh, "our biggest export is air."
The US Retail Federation pointed out that "August is the beginning of the traditional 'peak season", retailers will hoard holiday goods in advance at this time. Many retailers have improved this time this time, which is part of the risk strategy. To ensure adequate stocks during the holidays.
Supply chain crisis
Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Sino-US route and the Ministry of Commerce, and Zhang Jianping, director of the Regional Economic Research Center, pointed out that China's ability to manufacture industry and cargo trade is relatively strong, and the US Ou and other places are severe, but for daily consumer goods The demand is not reduced, and it is less likely to block the source, which leads to the problem of container pressure-wide problems; coupled with the shipping company may consider it, it is better to return to the source, which will also add it.
UBS expects the port congestion in the research report to last until 2022. This large-scale congestion causes the ship queue to stop and delays in the ship, and crowded a lot of capacity on major trade routes, and severely dragged shipping efficiency.
Global supply chain is full of body, while the container is blocked in the port, the manufacturer waiting for transportation is anxious. In South America, meat exports are already a big problem. Korni Pauls, Chairman of the Paraguay Meat Chamber of Commerce (CPC), said that due to lack of sea containers, transportation costs soared and the transportation time is unstable, the national meat processor's number of slaughter this month may be reduced by 20% - 25%.
Not only is upstream, and the downstream consumption is also warned. For example, the American toy production of business treasures is planning to raise prices to deal with continuously rising transportation costs and raw materials, the company expects that the shipping cost this year will be 4 times higher than last year.
"In addition to the improvement of commodity prices, consumers need to prepare for several weeks of freight delays, so as not to return to the shopping season." Biesterfeld pointed out.
"Now, it is not possible to say that the supply chain is interrupted, mainly because different countries have different extents, and the epidemic prevention measures of each country are different. Of course, some countries have organized the economic problems, such as Some countries have problems in production, manufacturing, circulation, and consumption, resulting in this relatively special shipping market fluctuations. "Zhang Jianping pointed out.
In this round of "super cycles", earning the ship's shipping company continues to increase profit expectations. The latest half-year report in Maersk showed that the company had a net profit of $ 3732 million in the second quarter, which was much higher than $ 359 million last year, and set the best quarterly performance in history.
As for this kind of very norm, Zhang Jianping said that it is not very good to judge, and the foreign trade market is generally volatility. This is a variety of factors that will not be supplemented with the growth rate, market demand, other logistics methods of import and export.Related, "But indeed, now the price of containers is high, I hope to return to normal as soon as possible."
In Bing Ming, this situation has to last for a while, but it may not be as serious as it is now, my country has also taken a series of measures to relieve it. For example, through China-Europe class reduces the dependence on the sea, it also puts a lot of containers. But it can only be said to be alleviated, and it is still not realistic in the short term.
Lift