The year of the sea industry: the freight rate is high fever, the port is congested
- Author:BESSON
- Release Date:2021-12-31
Supply and demand imbalance, lack of container shortage cabin, port congestion ...... make 2021 the shipping industry completely fire.
Turning to price fluctuations shipping this year, Zhang Yu, general manager of Hidden Hill Capital director told the "Securities Daily" reporters: "China's new crown pneumonia epidemic control is better, to ensure the normal production, coupled with growth in overseas demand and the lack of shipping crew, Central Europe and US routes difficult to book accommodation, but container reflux problems overseas port congestion is generated leading to sea 'hard to find a box'. "
Affected by the epidemic, the transport chain problem in the container market in the sea industry is frequent. From the loss of capacity to the port congestion, extended to the lack of land truck drivers, and the various transportation links are not connected, and it is still failed to solve it.
For shipping prices when cool, the industry has a different prediction. Liu Dawei, deputy general manager of logistics for a long time, said: "shipping prices is a temporary phenomenon, as the gradual recovery of the supply chain, prices return to normal probably take about three years."
Multichromic shipping prices high fever
December each year originally shipping industry off-season, in December this year, but not short off-season.
"Securities Daily" reporters recently in Yangshan Deepwater Port 101.5 kilometers from downtown Shanghai to see that a large number of containers waiting for loading. In this regard, at the port waiting booked cabin Shanghai Tianlu International Shipping Agency Ltd. Cui told reporters:. "Recently a year seaborne prices high, super cycle to the upstream and downstream industry chain brought a lot of orders."
Another port spokesman told reporters: "Now, there is no off-season shipping industry, ports but still shows a large accumulation of containers, container trucks after another transport, ports operating normally.."
Recalling the maritime industry this year, first in March blocked the Suez Canal, then to May Yantian serious congestion, after August, the port of Ningbo Meishan dock closed for two weeks due to an outbreak. Case closed ports in several countries appear, exacerbating the tensions containers and accommodation, shipping prices rose and rose.
On this year's shipping prices, the US airline highest tariffs. A freight forwarding told reporters: "Three quarters of each year is usually shipping season, this year's hot market will push the peak shipping prices, some freight tariffs to US routes cried $ 20,000."
European freight routes also rose sharply, Liu Dawei told reporters:. "Originally a container to Germany's tariff is $ 3,000, the maximum rose to $ 14,000 this year."
Other freight routes there rose to varying degrees. Cross-border electronic business platform Mu Chenguo CEO occasion to spend Guangyu "Securities Daily" correspondent, said: "Even at the lowest level this year, shipping prices also rose 30-40 percent over last year Brazil route is the emergence of 10-fold increase. . "
For freight soaring, there is the shipping industry to reporters: "There are a number of factors such as rising freight forwarding raise prices, increase the cost of containers and ship losses caused due to port queues, port container handling fees generated due to jump and so on. additional fee increase, these are the causes of tariffs rose. "
"In addition, in order to alleviate the container shortage, some vessels ranging from cargo and pull to return empty containers, and increased transportation costs, in the case of the superposition of various costs, making freight rates rise." The source added.
Foreign companies look for ways to reduce costs
The face of rising tariffs, foreign trade enterprises can not afford transportation shouting.
There are mobile electronic business platform responsible person "Securities Daily" correspondent, said: "After shipping prices, we had to adjust the selling price of goods, otherwise it will lose money." He also said: "Most of our goods by sea abroad, a very small part by air and by land, sea if the price does not drop down, no increase in interest income in the future the situation will be difficult to break. "
Although there are companies choose air freight trains and Europe, but for foreign trade enterprises still prefer sea.
It is reported that foreign trade of small shippers have taken LCL, scrape box way to save costs, large shippers and agents who think the way the charter. However, tariff increases brought about the high cost of foreign trade enterprises are facing so low-profit or even losses.
A secret secret of A-share trade listed company said that the reporter of the Securities Daily said: "The highest cost performance is still sea, a ship can run tens of thousands of tons of containers. Due to the intensification of overseas port, the return time uncertainty is enhanced, so we Opened European class, but this way is limited, and there is no more imported goods when returning, and it is still relatively high. "
The person also said: "Some European and American orders will not increase due to the increase in freight rate. Even if we do not pick up, many foreign trade companies in Southeast Asia can also pick up. In order to save costs, we can only go to the factory in Southeast Asian countries. A part of the cost is appropriate. "
Maritime price governance problem
In the face of skyrocketing, many countries have begun to take measures to intervene.
On September 8, the Maritime Supervision Agency from China, the United States and the European Union held a global shipping supervision summit. The FMC Chairman Danielmaffei talked about "shipping price and container price". Later, the world's top ten shipping companies, including Dai Fei Shipping, Maersk, Herberott, etc., have responded without price increase, the shipping price began to fall sharply, even the most popular Sino-US route, the price also down to $ 9,000 level .
At the same time, in order to solve the problem of unlocking of foreign trade enterprises, a large amount of container companies began to expand, and the shipping company also increased its capacity and gave a new ship. According to the statistics of Kraxson, January and October this year, the global commissioned new ship orders 11.08 million loaded tons, a year-on-year increase of 156.1%.
A secret secret of a mobile phone listed company said: "The large number of new ship orders this year will be mainly concentrated in 2023 and 2024. In the future, with this batch of ships, Jiaoji port congestion 2023 is expected to have effectively alleviated, and large amounts of box ship use efficiency will be significantly improved, and it is possible to jointly impact North American route freight. "
However, expansion containers and ships simultaneously triggering whether the industry's surgical capacity has caused overcapacity.
Some shippers said to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "The port has been in congested, and the ship turnover is an important reason for the unimportant supply chain of this round. Once the supply chain recovery, container manufacturers and ship companies will consider overcapacity, etc. problem."
The relevant person in charge of the listed company in a shipping industry revealed to reporters: "All major shipping companies have new ships, but the company's order is based on ship update replacement. After delivery, the corresponding old ship is eliminated. "
It is understood that the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) on reducing international shipping and carbon intensity will take effect from January 1, 2023, which will bring huge challenges to the shipping market.
Liu Dadai said to the reporter: "Many old ship will be subject to carbon emissions restrictions or slow down. At the same time, the new ship's capacity may not be able to make up the gap quickly, and the shipping market supply and demand will have an imbalance again."
Hong Kong Digital Transformation is imperative
The port congestion extended the cycle of the sea, and there is also the shipowner's choice to stop other ports, and even refuse to attach to the port goods.
Liu Dafu: "The past our ship to South American normal transport cycle is 45 days to 60 days, now take 80 days to 90 days." Cui Manager revealed to reporters: "When the British port is congested, there are many ship East ' 'The goods of the UK port. "
According to reports on December 13th, 101 ships waiting for entering Hong Kong around the port of Los Angeles Port and near the Boar Harbor, setting a record high.
Zhang Wei, the head of Beihai International Express, said to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "When the most congestion, the port goods are full, overseas warehouse, customs clearance needs to be queued."
How is the port congestion formed? Is there a solution? Various problems cause arguments in the industry.
Some people in the industry are intensive. The reason: the old old, new big ship is increased, exceeding the port carrying capacity, the shortage of terminal workers, low loading and unloading efficiency, warehouse supporting facilities, the infrastructure of Hong Kong and Rail Transportation and Hong Kong Road inadequate and multimodal transport network congestion and so on.
In response, the port insiders: "One of the important factors that port congestion is the port because of the epidemic decimated addition, truck drivers and train drivers strike gaps and other factors also contributed to a large shipping container nobody had accumulated at the port. "
Zhang Wei, Minister of the Daxie Merchants Pier, believe that the traditional pier is too large, which will lead to a slow response when the uncertainty factor is facing.
According to reports, in order to solve the problem of port congestion, the United States Long Beach and Los Angeles have announced 7 × 24 hours a day. But it seems that it seems that there is little effect. In the view of the industry, traditional ports need to be transformed to upgrade their own, otherwise it is still difficult to solve the short-term congestion.
In this regard, the above port people analyzed: "With the large size of the ship, the traditional port must first strengthen infrastructure construction, otherwise the big ship is unloaded; in addition, the port needs digital, intelligent solutions, saving artificial cost and time cost. "
Taking China's port as an example, in February, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Metal of the State Council officially issued the "Notice on Accelerating the Digital Transformation of State - owned Enterprises", clarifies the basis, direction, key points and initiatives of digital transformation of state-owned enterprises, and opened a new digital transformation of state-owned enterprises. Chapter. As the port enterprises in the transportation hub have seized this strategic opportunity, with the use of digital technology to effectively improve the port operational efficiency and achieve business growth.
Digital transformation has greatly improved the loading and unloading efficiency of the port. According to the container port performance index list in October this year, there are 6 Chinese ports in the top 10.
In the insiders, digital transformation is an inevitable choice for current port upgrades. The next phase, the port upgrade extends to the upstream industrial chain.
Zhang Wei said: "Some international port docks are blocked reflect the fragility of the supply chain. All nodes in the supply chain of the entire terminal require a systematic problem in any node, which will affect the entire industrial chain."
The industry believes that in the full chain of the supply chain, the data stream, information flow, and the funds are always connected to the data and the application of the data and the application of the company, collaborative customers, and provide a supply chain one-stop service.
The harbor congestion also sounds the alarm for the boat, in order to fill the logistics supply chain shortboard, the shipping giant has built a diversified logistics supply chain.
The Mediterranean Shipping Corporation (MSC) that only expands the capacity to invest in the logistics field. According to the news, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has submitted the quotation of BolloréafricAgistics, Africa's largest logistics transporter. On December 22, Maersk announced that it has reached an agreement, and the acquisition is headquartered in Hong Kong's contract logistics company Lifeng Logistics (LFLOGISTICS). As early as in August this year, Maersi also acquired two logistics companies focusing on the European and American B2C parcel delivery and B2C distribution services. In addition, in September, a full channel, digital supply chain service provider.
In addition to the logistics enterprise, the shipping giant also aimed at the port dock. After a plugging in many ports in the world, COSCAs have spent 500 million yuan in September to acquire 35% of the Hamburg CTT terminal. 35%. In addition, Herberrot and Dachanghai have a move in the acquisition terminal.
Some insiders said that this year's shipping company's profit is very rich. For shipping companies with large amounts of funds, assets such as investment logistics, and pier build a diversified logistics industry chain.
When the shipping giant is constantly expanding its own transport map, it also actively transforms. A person who has long been engaged in the shipping industry said to reporters: "Today, there are many customers present the requirements of digital transformation; because the epidemic is repeated, if the customer needs to export, it will be arranged through the network."
In this regard, COSCOPA reporters said to the Securities Daily, "From this epidemic, we should build more robust, efficient global supply chain, more diversified, stereo logistics supply chain service network, this Guarantee the steady operation of the global economy is critical. In the next period, the globalization layout, digital transformation will become an important feature of the development of the shipping industry. "
In the insiders, if the airport can realize digital transformation, each transport supply chain can achieve Unicom, will help the freight rate return to normal.
Turning to price fluctuations shipping this year, Zhang Yu, general manager of Hidden Hill Capital director told the "Securities Daily" reporters: "China's new crown pneumonia epidemic control is better, to ensure the normal production, coupled with growth in overseas demand and the lack of shipping crew, Central Europe and US routes difficult to book accommodation, but container reflux problems overseas port congestion is generated leading to sea 'hard to find a box'. "
Affected by the epidemic, the transport chain problem in the container market in the sea industry is frequent. From the loss of capacity to the port congestion, extended to the lack of land truck drivers, and the various transportation links are not connected, and it is still failed to solve it.
For shipping prices when cool, the industry has a different prediction. Liu Dawei, deputy general manager of logistics for a long time, said: "shipping prices is a temporary phenomenon, as the gradual recovery of the supply chain, prices return to normal probably take about three years."
Multichromic shipping prices high fever
December each year originally shipping industry off-season, in December this year, but not short off-season.
"Securities Daily" reporters recently in Yangshan Deepwater Port 101.5 kilometers from downtown Shanghai to see that a large number of containers waiting for loading. In this regard, at the port waiting booked cabin Shanghai Tianlu International Shipping Agency Ltd. Cui told reporters:. "Recently a year seaborne prices high, super cycle to the upstream and downstream industry chain brought a lot of orders."
Another port spokesman told reporters: "Now, there is no off-season shipping industry, ports but still shows a large accumulation of containers, container trucks after another transport, ports operating normally.."
Recalling the maritime industry this year, first in March blocked the Suez Canal, then to May Yantian serious congestion, after August, the port of Ningbo Meishan dock closed for two weeks due to an outbreak. Case closed ports in several countries appear, exacerbating the tensions containers and accommodation, shipping prices rose and rose.
On this year's shipping prices, the US airline highest tariffs. A freight forwarding told reporters: "Three quarters of each year is usually shipping season, this year's hot market will push the peak shipping prices, some freight tariffs to US routes cried $ 20,000."
European freight routes also rose sharply, Liu Dawei told reporters:. "Originally a container to Germany's tariff is $ 3,000, the maximum rose to $ 14,000 this year."
Other freight routes there rose to varying degrees. Cross-border electronic business platform Mu Chenguo CEO occasion to spend Guangyu "Securities Daily" correspondent, said: "Even at the lowest level this year, shipping prices also rose 30-40 percent over last year Brazil route is the emergence of 10-fold increase. . "
For freight soaring, there is the shipping industry to reporters: "There are a number of factors such as rising freight forwarding raise prices, increase the cost of containers and ship losses caused due to port queues, port container handling fees generated due to jump and so on. additional fee increase, these are the causes of tariffs rose. "
"In addition, in order to alleviate the container shortage, some vessels ranging from cargo and pull to return empty containers, and increased transportation costs, in the case of the superposition of various costs, making freight rates rise." The source added.
Foreign companies look for ways to reduce costs
The face of rising tariffs, foreign trade enterprises can not afford transportation shouting.
There are mobile electronic business platform responsible person "Securities Daily" correspondent, said: "After shipping prices, we had to adjust the selling price of goods, otherwise it will lose money." He also said: "Most of our goods by sea abroad, a very small part by air and by land, sea if the price does not drop down, no increase in interest income in the future the situation will be difficult to break. "
Although there are companies choose air freight trains and Europe, but for foreign trade enterprises still prefer sea.
It is reported that foreign trade of small shippers have taken LCL, scrape box way to save costs, large shippers and agents who think the way the charter. However, tariff increases brought about the high cost of foreign trade enterprises are facing so low-profit or even losses.
A secret secret of A-share trade listed company said that the reporter of the Securities Daily said: "The highest cost performance is still sea, a ship can run tens of thousands of tons of containers. Due to the intensification of overseas port, the return time uncertainty is enhanced, so we Opened European class, but this way is limited, and there is no more imported goods when returning, and it is still relatively high. "
The person also said: "Some European and American orders will not increase due to the increase in freight rate. Even if we do not pick up, many foreign trade companies in Southeast Asia can also pick up. In order to save costs, we can only go to the factory in Southeast Asian countries. A part of the cost is appropriate. "
Maritime price governance problem
In the face of skyrocketing, many countries have begun to take measures to intervene.
On September 8, the Maritime Supervision Agency from China, the United States and the European Union held a global shipping supervision summit. The FMC Chairman Danielmaffei talked about "shipping price and container price". Later, the world's top ten shipping companies, including Dai Fei Shipping, Maersk, Herberott, etc., have responded without price increase, the shipping price began to fall sharply, even the most popular Sino-US route, the price also down to $ 9,000 level .
At the same time, in order to solve the problem of unlocking of foreign trade enterprises, a large amount of container companies began to expand, and the shipping company also increased its capacity and gave a new ship. According to the statistics of Kraxson, January and October this year, the global commissioned new ship orders 11.08 million loaded tons, a year-on-year increase of 156.1%.
A secret secret of a mobile phone listed company said: "The large number of new ship orders this year will be mainly concentrated in 2023 and 2024. In the future, with this batch of ships, Jiaoji port congestion 2023 is expected to have effectively alleviated, and large amounts of box ship use efficiency will be significantly improved, and it is possible to jointly impact North American route freight. "
However, expansion containers and ships simultaneously triggering whether the industry's surgical capacity has caused overcapacity.
Some shippers said to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "The port has been in congested, and the ship turnover is an important reason for the unimportant supply chain of this round. Once the supply chain recovery, container manufacturers and ship companies will consider overcapacity, etc. problem."
The relevant person in charge of the listed company in a shipping industry revealed to reporters: "All major shipping companies have new ships, but the company's order is based on ship update replacement. After delivery, the corresponding old ship is eliminated. "
It is understood that the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) on reducing international shipping and carbon intensity will take effect from January 1, 2023, which will bring huge challenges to the shipping market.
Liu Dadai said to the reporter: "Many old ship will be subject to carbon emissions restrictions or slow down. At the same time, the new ship's capacity may not be able to make up the gap quickly, and the shipping market supply and demand will have an imbalance again."
Hong Kong Digital Transformation is imperative
The port congestion extended the cycle of the sea, and there is also the shipowner's choice to stop other ports, and even refuse to attach to the port goods.
Liu Dafu: "The past our ship to South American normal transport cycle is 45 days to 60 days, now take 80 days to 90 days." Cui Manager revealed to reporters: "When the British port is congested, there are many ship East ' 'The goods of the UK port. "
According to reports on December 13th, 101 ships waiting for entering Hong Kong around the port of Los Angeles Port and near the Boar Harbor, setting a record high.
Zhang Wei, the head of Beihai International Express, said to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "When the most congestion, the port goods are full, overseas warehouse, customs clearance needs to be queued."
How is the port congestion formed? Is there a solution? Various problems cause arguments in the industry.
Some people in the industry are intensive. The reason: the old old, new big ship is increased, exceeding the port carrying capacity, the shortage of terminal workers, low loading and unloading efficiency, warehouse supporting facilities, the infrastructure of Hong Kong and Rail Transportation and Hong Kong Road inadequate and multimodal transport network congestion and so on.
In response, the port insiders: "One of the important factors that port congestion is the port because of the epidemic decimated addition, truck drivers and train drivers strike gaps and other factors also contributed to a large shipping container nobody had accumulated at the port. "
Zhang Wei, Minister of the Daxie Merchants Pier, believe that the traditional pier is too large, which will lead to a slow response when the uncertainty factor is facing.
According to reports, in order to solve the problem of port congestion, the United States Long Beach and Los Angeles have announced 7 × 24 hours a day. But it seems that it seems that there is little effect. In the view of the industry, traditional ports need to be transformed to upgrade their own, otherwise it is still difficult to solve the short-term congestion.
In this regard, the above port people analyzed: "With the large size of the ship, the traditional port must first strengthen infrastructure construction, otherwise the big ship is unloaded; in addition, the port needs digital, intelligent solutions, saving artificial cost and time cost. "
Taking China's port as an example, in February, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Metal of the State Council officially issued the "Notice on Accelerating the Digital Transformation of State - owned Enterprises", clarifies the basis, direction, key points and initiatives of digital transformation of state-owned enterprises, and opened a new digital transformation of state-owned enterprises. Chapter. As the port enterprises in the transportation hub have seized this strategic opportunity, with the use of digital technology to effectively improve the port operational efficiency and achieve business growth.
Digital transformation has greatly improved the loading and unloading efficiency of the port. According to the container port performance index list in October this year, there are 6 Chinese ports in the top 10.
In the insiders, digital transformation is an inevitable choice for current port upgrades. The next phase, the port upgrade extends to the upstream industrial chain.
Zhang Wei said: "Some international port docks are blocked reflect the fragility of the supply chain. All nodes in the supply chain of the entire terminal require a systematic problem in any node, which will affect the entire industrial chain."
The industry believes that in the full chain of the supply chain, the data stream, information flow, and the funds are always connected to the data and the application of the data and the application of the company, collaborative customers, and provide a supply chain one-stop service.
The harbor congestion also sounds the alarm for the boat, in order to fill the logistics supply chain shortboard, the shipping giant has built a diversified logistics supply chain.
The Mediterranean Shipping Corporation (MSC) that only expands the capacity to invest in the logistics field. According to the news, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has submitted the quotation of BolloréafricAgistics, Africa's largest logistics transporter. On December 22, Maersk announced that it has reached an agreement, and the acquisition is headquartered in Hong Kong's contract logistics company Lifeng Logistics (LFLOGISTICS). As early as in August this year, Maersi also acquired two logistics companies focusing on the European and American B2C parcel delivery and B2C distribution services. In addition, in September, a full channel, digital supply chain service provider.
In addition to the logistics enterprise, the shipping giant also aimed at the port dock. After a plugging in many ports in the world, COSCAs have spent 500 million yuan in September to acquire 35% of the Hamburg CTT terminal. 35%. In addition, Herberrot and Dachanghai have a move in the acquisition terminal.
Some insiders said that this year's shipping company's profit is very rich. For shipping companies with large amounts of funds, assets such as investment logistics, and pier build a diversified logistics industry chain.
When the shipping giant is constantly expanding its own transport map, it also actively transforms. A person who has long been engaged in the shipping industry said to reporters: "Today, there are many customers present the requirements of digital transformation; because the epidemic is repeated, if the customer needs to export, it will be arranged through the network."
In this regard, COSCOPA reporters said to the Securities Daily, "From this epidemic, we should build more robust, efficient global supply chain, more diversified, stereo logistics supply chain service network, this Guarantee the steady operation of the global economy is critical. In the next period, the globalization layout, digital transformation will become an important feature of the development of the shipping industry. "
In the insiders, if the airport can realize digital transformation, each transport supply chain can achieve Unicom, will help the freight rate return to normal.