Up up up constantly, when shipping prices can peak?
- Author:BESSON
- Release Date:2021-12-31
Since the epidemic, shipping problems have gradually become the core of global concern. This had continued loss of the shipping market, now in one fell swoop earn pours, should earn even more than the past decade. However, the high price of shipping, port congestion delays can not be resolved, leading to the global supply chain have appeared strange.
With the deterioration of the situation, the other more critical issues is intensifying. November this year, UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) warned that the high cost of shipping will further exacerbate global inflation.
This has been not so high-profile maritime industry, has now become a part of global inflation can not be ignored in the study, all walks of life has become a "barometer." So, what next year's tariff is high or low? Port congestion problem could be eased? How to play the market impact of the epidemic?
Epidemic affecting demand, around the demand tariffs
In the past year, shipping freight rates hit record highs, compared to the 2020 agreement about the price, shipping costs have now soared 10 times, shipping companies realized the last ten years have been difficult to match the level of profitability, even the shipping shares also appeared to rise sharply. In the past decade, freight rates in the doldrums, the market even qualify through zero or even negative freight tariff. Overnight, the industry changes.
One reason for boosting freight rates skyrocketing demand-side growth. How next year's seaborne freight market changes, to a large extent also depends on changes in the demand side.
Moment, more than 90% of the business to be transported by sea. This year, with the epidemic under control, trade gradually restored, the rapid increase in the overall demand for shipping. Especially in the Chinese market, due to the epidemic prevention and control measures in place, China's resumption resume production more smoothly. According to customs statistics, the first 11 months of this year, the total value of my country's exports to 19.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.8%, an increase of 25.8% over the same period in 2019. Which exports to the EU grew by 23.9%, exports to the US grew 19.2%.
Consumer demand is also further increased. In the United States, under the influence of the epidemic, trade in services consumption shift to consumption of physical trade, the US economic rescue plan implemented also further stimulate consumer shopping needs. This past Thanksgiving and Christmas, even for Christmas season has ended, but the volume of US imports remained near record levels, 40% higher than the level of the same period two years ago.
At the same time, demand stimulation on tariff highly variable. In October this year, sea freight there have been brief pullback, but soon began to continue to rise. Director of China Shanghai International Shipping Institute for International Shipping Institute ON TRADITIONAL analysis, said October exports slightly depressed, but then in November of this year, demand for exports better than expected, leading to increased export demand for transport capacity, tariffs will naturally increase.
The new Austrian crown McCormick recent strains Rong again cast a shadow over the global trade.
ON TRADITIONAL said, according to convention, in December next year in January, the import and export market there will be some signs of a slowdown, but this year, after the Austrian McCormick Rong emerge, the market nervousness, do not rule out some of the owner in advance to arrange shipment, which had expected would lead to the off-season is still showing the characteristics of the season, the shipping market is still busy, it is difficult to come down freight rates. An anonymous industry insiders also pointed out that in the coming months, expect freight rates will not fall.
But longer term, tariffs decline is not impossible. Yang Yongfeng pointed out that the current US inflation rate has been high, but also reduce the subsidies for the epidemic, while under the influence of the epidemic, the United States and Europe difficult to sustain high growth of consumer demand in the next year.
More recently analysts also believe that the import and export is expected to increase next year will be down sharply for reasons including global economic recovery momentum has slowed, the price of the contribution of exports to gradually weaken, overseas supply chain bottlenecks may improve. The above analysis, high market demand for shipping may not be a continuation of the trend in 2021, which will free up some space for freight back on track.
With the deterioration of the situation, the other more critical issues is intensifying. November this year, UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) warned that the high cost of shipping will further exacerbate global inflation.
This has been not so high-profile maritime industry, has now become a part of global inflation can not be ignored in the study, all walks of life has become a "barometer." So, what next year's tariff is high or low? Port congestion problem could be eased? How to play the market impact of the epidemic?
Epidemic affecting demand, around the demand tariffs
In the past year, shipping freight rates hit record highs, compared to the 2020 agreement about the price, shipping costs have now soared 10 times, shipping companies realized the last ten years have been difficult to match the level of profitability, even the shipping shares also appeared to rise sharply. In the past decade, freight rates in the doldrums, the market even qualify through zero or even negative freight tariff. Overnight, the industry changes.
One reason for boosting freight rates skyrocketing demand-side growth. How next year's seaborne freight market changes, to a large extent also depends on changes in the demand side.
Moment, more than 90% of the business to be transported by sea. This year, with the epidemic under control, trade gradually restored, the rapid increase in the overall demand for shipping. Especially in the Chinese market, due to the epidemic prevention and control measures in place, China's resumption resume production more smoothly. According to customs statistics, the first 11 months of this year, the total value of my country's exports to 19.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.8%, an increase of 25.8% over the same period in 2019. Which exports to the EU grew by 23.9%, exports to the US grew 19.2%.
Consumer demand is also further increased. In the United States, under the influence of the epidemic, trade in services consumption shift to consumption of physical trade, the US economic rescue plan implemented also further stimulate consumer shopping needs. This past Thanksgiving and Christmas, even for Christmas season has ended, but the volume of US imports remained near record levels, 40% higher than the level of the same period two years ago.
At the same time, demand stimulation on tariff highly variable. In October this year, sea freight there have been brief pullback, but soon began to continue to rise. Director of China Shanghai International Shipping Institute for International Shipping Institute ON TRADITIONAL analysis, said October exports slightly depressed, but then in November of this year, demand for exports better than expected, leading to increased export demand for transport capacity, tariffs will naturally increase.
The new Austrian crown McCormick recent strains Rong again cast a shadow over the global trade.
ON TRADITIONAL said, according to convention, in December next year in January, the import and export market there will be some signs of a slowdown, but this year, after the Austrian McCormick Rong emerge, the market nervousness, do not rule out some of the owner in advance to arrange shipment, which had expected would lead to the off-season is still showing the characteristics of the season, the shipping market is still busy, it is difficult to come down freight rates. An anonymous industry insiders also pointed out that in the coming months, expect freight rates will not fall.
But longer term, tariffs decline is not impossible. Yang Yongfeng pointed out that the current US inflation rate has been high, but also reduce the subsidies for the epidemic, while under the influence of the epidemic, the United States and Europe difficult to sustain high growth of consumer demand in the next year.
More recently analysts also believe that the import and export is expected to increase next year will be down sharply for reasons including global economic recovery momentum has slowed, the price of the contribution of exports to gradually weaken, overseas supply chain bottlenecks may improve. The above analysis, high market demand for shipping may not be a continuation of the trend in 2021, which will free up some space for freight back on track.