When the empty box is accumulated, the sea transport stops "crazy". When will the inflecti
- Author:sofreight.com
- Release Date:2023-03-02
"At present, the storage boxes of various yards and docks are sufficient. This year's Spring Festival holiday and late starting work will have an impact on the amount of goods." Li Mu (pseudonym), the person in charge of a freight forwarding company in Zhejiang, told the First Financial, and it was the same period last year.Compared to their state of starting this year, they are no longer busy.
From "a box of hardships" to "ships and other goods", to now the large -pages are full of empty boxes, the conversion of sea transport from the cycle that is in short supply to the excess cycle is faster than people expected.A large number of new ships will also be at the beginning of concentrated launch this year.
People in the industry believe that it is hard to say if the maritime industry will usher in a long period of downturn, but in the next few years, the maritime industry may not be optimistic.But this year will still appear a relative peak season.
In Li Mu's view, the accumulation of the air box has the periodic cause of the supply chain to be recovered after the festival. There are also the release of the epidemic at the end of last year that caused many manufacturers to leave in advance and reduce raw material inventory. Therefore, all procurement and production plans have gone to go toThe special factors of the post -extension.
According to another freight forwarder, the container shipping market will gradually recover in one and a half months after the Spring Festival.Affected by the multiple unfavorable factors since the second half of 2022, at least 2 months in 2023, the market recovery can be seen.
The fundamental reason for the accumulation of empty boxes is that on the one hand, the slowdown in global trade growth has led to a shrinkage of demand. On the other hand, a large number of new containers flow into the market during the soaring price soaring price, and the supply doubles.According to public data, in 2021, under the rising market market in the container shipping market, more than 7 million standard box containers were produced worldwide, which was nearly three times the conventional years.The premium and special factors are superimposed to become more obvious than seeking in this Spring Festival.
According to the latest data of the global container trading platform, Container XChange, the 6th week of 2023 (February 5th to 11th), the 40 -foot container CAX (available index) of Shanghai Port reached 0.64, which has been above 0.6 for 11 consecutive weeks.When the value of the CAX is greater than 0.5, it means that the container equipment has the surplus.
The recently released Druori World Container Index shows that in the 30 months since July 30, 2020, the index fell below the $ 2,000 mark per 20 -foot benchmark box for the first time.The global freight comprehensive index is currently at $ 1997.22 per 20 feet, while reaching a peak of more than $ 10,300 in September 2021.
In addition, according to the weekly report of the China Export Container Transporting Market released on February 11, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the recovery of China's export container transportation market is not satisfactory after the Spring Festival holiday. The recovery of transportation demand in this week is slow.The market freight rate of the ocean route continues to decline, and the comprehensive index continues to fall.On February 10, the comprehensive freight freight index of Shanghai export container released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 995.16 points, a decrease of 1.2%from the previous period.
More serious than the container's supply is excessive shipping power.
"The container of the sea transportation industry must be excess, but the assets of the container are decentralized, the asset disposal is easier, and the use is wider, so even if the excess effect is not large, the ship can not hide it, and it needs to be maintained.. "Chen Yang, editor -in -chief of the Professional Shipping Information Consultation Platform, told First Financial that not only the container index fell to the lowest point, the freight on some important routes had fallen to the level before the epidemic, even lower.Beginning this year, a large number of new ships will start delivery, and there will be more after the next year.This will also make the next shipping industry, "how beautiful it used to be, how unbearable it may be."
However, in order to dynamically balance the supply and demand, Chen Yang said that some shipowner collecting companies are now dealing with some old ships. "At present, some old containers are sent to demolish, and the amount is not large.There will be more ships and demolition. At the same time, the shipping speed of the container this year will be relatively low.
According to the data of XENETA, the fare benchmark platform, in addition to the decline in the current freight rate, the long -term freight rate also showed a record decline.Xeneta's recent report said that the average long -term contract interest rate in January fell by 13.3%.
Master also warned that the net profit in 2023 was expected to decline by 93.5%year -on -year.According to Masky's 2022 report, the company's revenue increased by 32%to $ 81.5 billion in 2022, and the pre -interest tax (EBIT) increased by 57%to $ 30.9 billion.Although the global economic slowdown will lead to the weak market, especially the maritime market, Masky will continue to seek growth opportunities in the logistics business and dock business.In this context, Mascia expects the pre -interest tax (EBIT) in 2023 to $ 2 billion to $ 5 billion.
Although it is not optimistic as a whole, there will still be a relative peak season this year.
"Continue to fall in a short time after the Spring Festival is expected." Chen Yang proposed that this year will definitely have a more so -called period.With the changes in the seasons, the market in summer and autumn is relatively prosperous, coupled with the release of the Chinese epidemic prevention and control and the launch of a series of economic stimulus measures this year, they will bring sustainable benefits to the shipping and foreign trade industries.
Wei Ran, the person in charge of Alibaba International Station Performance Logistics and Customs Department, told the First Financial: "As a US -line market for shipping price benchmarks, the long -term dating of general shipping companies and large customers will be signed before the end of April each year.It will take effect on the 1st. "At that time, the market's current shipping price will float on the basis of contract.From the perspective of demand -side recovery, it is expected that this year's watershed will occur around June.
In Wei Ran's view, the shipping price and volume of shipping markets have experienced severe fluctuations during the epidemic, and the market will be reconstructed.The related companies of shipping must go in two steps. First, they attach importance to the trend of overseas production capacity and supply chain to Southeast Asia. "This trend is continuing, where it should be, where the freight forwarder is"; second, strengthen China's trade services in China;Ability and increase core barriers. "Chinese merchants have the ability to organize goods and supply chain service capabilities, but low -value -added goods may not go from China, that is, there will be more and more state of goods separation.Value products are made by China for trade services and division of labor and manufacturing overseas. "
As China's B2B cross -border e -commerce platform, Alibaba International Station itself provides service trade for cargo traders, and the platform will increase investment in logistics services this year.In February of this year, the Yiwu center warehouse of Alibaba International Station logistics services will be launched, and the central warehouse will be added nationwide.
Wang Tiantian, general manager of Chinese suppliers and cross -border supply chain of Alibaba International Station, proposed that the development of foreign trade is entering the "high -quality growth era" from the "era of traffic growth".As an important part of the delivery performance, logistics also changes from the "soaring price soaring" and "a box of difficult for a box" during the epidemic period.The end -to -end service, the second is to build a decentralized network, return to localization, improve efficiency, and find incremental in the stock. "
Wang Tiantian believes that China's foreign trade has achieved sustainable development during the epidemic, and this part of the increment will not be completely ebb this year.At the same time, the trend of China's export products and services that can be seen from the increase in the price of the cargo will continue to increase to higher value -added.
Li Xingqian, director of the Ministry of Commerce at the Department of Foreign Trade, said at a press conference on February 2 that in general, the China Foreign Trade Station in 2022 has set a new height, released new kinetic energy, and made new contributions.At present, the risk of recession in the world economy has risen, external demand growth has slowed significantly, the international supply chain pattern is also accelerating the reconstruction, and the development environment of foreign trade is extremely severe.In 2023, we must strengthen our foreign trade stabilization and standard structure, and to stabilize exporting to support the national economy.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 31, in January this year, the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was 50.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, and rose to the critical point.However, Hongta Securities proposed that the new export order index of the manufacturing industry was 46.1%, and below the Rongku Line, it also increased by only 1.9 percentage points from the previous month.
At the press conference held by the State Council News Office on January 13, Lu Deliang, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said that the current foundation of my country's economic recovery is not firm, the external environment is turbulent, and the pressure on the downward of the world economy has continued to increase. my country is constantly increasing. China has continued to increase. The difficulties facing foreign trade development are still more.While facing difficulties and challenges, we must also see that my country has strong economic toughness, great potential, and dynamic. The long -term good fundamentals are still unchanged. The economy is expected to recover in 2023. Essence
From "a box of hardships" to "ships and other goods", to now the large -pages are full of empty boxes, the conversion of sea transport from the cycle that is in short supply to the excess cycle is faster than people expected.A large number of new ships will also be at the beginning of concentrated launch this year.
People in the industry believe that it is hard to say if the maritime industry will usher in a long period of downturn, but in the next few years, the maritime industry may not be optimistic.But this year will still appear a relative peak season.
In Li Mu's view, the accumulation of the air box has the periodic cause of the supply chain to be recovered after the festival. There are also the release of the epidemic at the end of last year that caused many manufacturers to leave in advance and reduce raw material inventory. Therefore, all procurement and production plans have gone to go toThe special factors of the post -extension.
According to another freight forwarder, the container shipping market will gradually recover in one and a half months after the Spring Festival.Affected by the multiple unfavorable factors since the second half of 2022, at least 2 months in 2023, the market recovery can be seen.
The fundamental reason for the accumulation of empty boxes is that on the one hand, the slowdown in global trade growth has led to a shrinkage of demand. On the other hand, a large number of new containers flow into the market during the soaring price soaring price, and the supply doubles.According to public data, in 2021, under the rising market market in the container shipping market, more than 7 million standard box containers were produced worldwide, which was nearly three times the conventional years.The premium and special factors are superimposed to become more obvious than seeking in this Spring Festival.
According to the latest data of the global container trading platform, Container XChange, the 6th week of 2023 (February 5th to 11th), the 40 -foot container CAX (available index) of Shanghai Port reached 0.64, which has been above 0.6 for 11 consecutive weeks.When the value of the CAX is greater than 0.5, it means that the container equipment has the surplus.
The recently released Druori World Container Index shows that in the 30 months since July 30, 2020, the index fell below the $ 2,000 mark per 20 -foot benchmark box for the first time.The global freight comprehensive index is currently at $ 1997.22 per 20 feet, while reaching a peak of more than $ 10,300 in September 2021.
In addition, according to the weekly report of the China Export Container Transporting Market released on February 11, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the recovery of China's export container transportation market is not satisfactory after the Spring Festival holiday. The recovery of transportation demand in this week is slow.The market freight rate of the ocean route continues to decline, and the comprehensive index continues to fall.On February 10, the comprehensive freight freight index of Shanghai export container released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 995.16 points, a decrease of 1.2%from the previous period.
More serious than the container's supply is excessive shipping power.
"The container of the sea transportation industry must be excess, but the assets of the container are decentralized, the asset disposal is easier, and the use is wider, so even if the excess effect is not large, the ship can not hide it, and it needs to be maintained.. "Chen Yang, editor -in -chief of the Professional Shipping Information Consultation Platform, told First Financial that not only the container index fell to the lowest point, the freight on some important routes had fallen to the level before the epidemic, even lower.Beginning this year, a large number of new ships will start delivery, and there will be more after the next year.This will also make the next shipping industry, "how beautiful it used to be, how unbearable it may be."
However, in order to dynamically balance the supply and demand, Chen Yang said that some shipowner collecting companies are now dealing with some old ships. "At present, some old containers are sent to demolish, and the amount is not large.There will be more ships and demolition. At the same time, the shipping speed of the container this year will be relatively low.
According to the data of XENETA, the fare benchmark platform, in addition to the decline in the current freight rate, the long -term freight rate also showed a record decline.Xeneta's recent report said that the average long -term contract interest rate in January fell by 13.3%.
Master also warned that the net profit in 2023 was expected to decline by 93.5%year -on -year.According to Masky's 2022 report, the company's revenue increased by 32%to $ 81.5 billion in 2022, and the pre -interest tax (EBIT) increased by 57%to $ 30.9 billion.Although the global economic slowdown will lead to the weak market, especially the maritime market, Masky will continue to seek growth opportunities in the logistics business and dock business.In this context, Mascia expects the pre -interest tax (EBIT) in 2023 to $ 2 billion to $ 5 billion.
Although it is not optimistic as a whole, there will still be a relative peak season this year.
"Continue to fall in a short time after the Spring Festival is expected." Chen Yang proposed that this year will definitely have a more so -called period.With the changes in the seasons, the market in summer and autumn is relatively prosperous, coupled with the release of the Chinese epidemic prevention and control and the launch of a series of economic stimulus measures this year, they will bring sustainable benefits to the shipping and foreign trade industries.
Wei Ran, the person in charge of Alibaba International Station Performance Logistics and Customs Department, told the First Financial: "As a US -line market for shipping price benchmarks, the long -term dating of general shipping companies and large customers will be signed before the end of April each year.It will take effect on the 1st. "At that time, the market's current shipping price will float on the basis of contract.From the perspective of demand -side recovery, it is expected that this year's watershed will occur around June.
In Wei Ran's view, the shipping price and volume of shipping markets have experienced severe fluctuations during the epidemic, and the market will be reconstructed.The related companies of shipping must go in two steps. First, they attach importance to the trend of overseas production capacity and supply chain to Southeast Asia. "This trend is continuing, where it should be, where the freight forwarder is"; second, strengthen China's trade services in China;Ability and increase core barriers. "Chinese merchants have the ability to organize goods and supply chain service capabilities, but low -value -added goods may not go from China, that is, there will be more and more state of goods separation.Value products are made by China for trade services and division of labor and manufacturing overseas. "
As China's B2B cross -border e -commerce platform, Alibaba International Station itself provides service trade for cargo traders, and the platform will increase investment in logistics services this year.In February of this year, the Yiwu center warehouse of Alibaba International Station logistics services will be launched, and the central warehouse will be added nationwide.
Wang Tiantian, general manager of Chinese suppliers and cross -border supply chain of Alibaba International Station, proposed that the development of foreign trade is entering the "high -quality growth era" from the "era of traffic growth".As an important part of the delivery performance, logistics also changes from the "soaring price soaring" and "a box of difficult for a box" during the epidemic period.The end -to -end service, the second is to build a decentralized network, return to localization, improve efficiency, and find incremental in the stock. "
Wang Tiantian believes that China's foreign trade has achieved sustainable development during the epidemic, and this part of the increment will not be completely ebb this year.At the same time, the trend of China's export products and services that can be seen from the increase in the price of the cargo will continue to increase to higher value -added.
Li Xingqian, director of the Ministry of Commerce at the Department of Foreign Trade, said at a press conference on February 2 that in general, the China Foreign Trade Station in 2022 has set a new height, released new kinetic energy, and made new contributions.At present, the risk of recession in the world economy has risen, external demand growth has slowed significantly, the international supply chain pattern is also accelerating the reconstruction, and the development environment of foreign trade is extremely severe.In 2023, we must strengthen our foreign trade stabilization and standard structure, and to stabilize exporting to support the national economy.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 31, in January this year, the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was 50.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, and rose to the critical point.However, Hongta Securities proposed that the new export order index of the manufacturing industry was 46.1%, and below the Rongku Line, it also increased by only 1.9 percentage points from the previous month.
At the press conference held by the State Council News Office on January 13, Lu Deliang, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said that the current foundation of my country's economic recovery is not firm, the external environment is turbulent, and the pressure on the downward of the world economy has continued to increase. my country is constantly increasing. China has continued to increase. The difficulties facing foreign trade development are still more.While facing difficulties and challenges, we must also see that my country has strong economic toughness, great potential, and dynamic. The long -term good fundamentals are still unchanged. The economy is expected to recover in 2023. Essence