International shipping market: three quarters is expected to resume

Volatility major cargo types by downstream demand, the international dry bulk shipping market in the second quarter performance significantly below market expectations. As of June 30, BDI index closed at 850 points, 982 points for the second quarter of the average year on year (quarter) increased by 10.6% qoq (quarter) decreased 28.4%.

Tanker second quarter is the traditional off-season, tariffs fell by a big margin over the first quarter. Crude mean Baltic Freight Index (BDTI) 673 points in the second quarter, a decline of 30.6%, up 6.94%; mean of 560 points tanker freight transport market index finished oil tanker freight index (BCTI) in the second quarter, a decline of 7.74%, down 10.47%.

Shanghai International Shipping Institute expects global economic growth in the third quarter will show accelerating trend. Power American recovery has been consolidated, the euro zone will continue a moderate recovery, the new quantitative easing monetary policy to stimulate domestic consumer demand in favor of pulling the total increase in imports and exports; China "steady growth" policy to further show the effect of endogenous driving force of economic development gradually increased, external demand has improved; Japan's economy will pick up again since the second quarter of contraction, but the ability to maintain the growth momentum mainly depends on whether exports will continue to expand.

International container transport market, after the second quarter of alternating seasonal period, international groupage freight market will usher in the traditional peak season in the third quarter, coupled with the global economy in the developed economies was optimistic about the background of steady expansion trend, driven by Europe, the United States and other major markets import demand continues to grow, driven container shipping volume upward. But by the shipping companies to expand transport capacity partially offset the impact of good volume, may affect the market tariffs. The trend is expected in the third quarter before the high tariffs low, and is accompanied by slight fluctuations.

International dry bulk shipping market, the market in the third quarter, the traditional peak season, but this season because of the many factors that exist in the current issue of the international dry bulk freight transport market support greatly reduced. Phase shift makes real estate trends associated with the real estate industry needs greatly reduced, to the inventory of raw materials, finished goods destocking encountered strong resistance. With the expansion of railway investment scale, the scale of infrastructure investment growth will remain robust growth, the international dry bulk shipping market rebound will depend on the scale of China's infrastructure investment can offset the decline in real estate investment to bring the gap. Since the second quarter, the market is low volatility trend, reducing the downside, the market has rebounded expected, plus part of the supporting factors season, three quarters of the market will be better in the second quarter of tariffs, but upside is limited.

International tanker shipping market is expected in the third quarter driven by the major economies in the case of temperature and the recovery in oil demand, BDTI will fluctuate upward trend, BCTI is expected to be bottoming out, showing an upward trend.